What will happen to Bitcoin in the future: from digital gold to a state asset

Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 20%, dropping to $90,800, while the market capitalization of the first cryptocurrency has declined by 37% from its peak — from $2.48 trillion to $1.81 trillion. What will happen to Bitcoin next, and should we expect new stages in the development of "digital gold"?

What will happen to Bitcoin in the near term?

Despite the negative dynamics of Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole, some experts remain optimistic about the first cryptocurrency. In their view, the current correction is local, and as early as spring 2026 Bitcoin may return to a bullish phase.

Experts identify the following key growth factors for Bitcoin:

• Institutional recognition. Bitcoin ETFs simplify access to digital assets and reduce legal risks for large players.
• Macroeconomic factors. Easing of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy and a weakening of the U.S. dollar amid economic instability may lead to Bitcoin price growth;
• Technological upgrades, as well as the expansion of the Lightning Network payment infrastructure.

In the near term, according to various analysts, Bitcoin's price may rise to $150,000–250,000. For example, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee predicts Bitcoin at $200,000–250,000 by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, JPMorgan forecasts that Bitcoin's price could reach $170,000 over the next 6–12 months.

However, some experts allow for a decline in Bitcoin's price to $70,000 or even $10,000 if macroeconomic indicators deteriorate. For example, according to CryptoQuant forecasts, Bitcoin could fall to $56,000 by the second half of 2026.

Key signals for the continued dominance of Bitcoin in the near future may include:

• A favorable regulatory attitude toward the asset;
• High liquidity and large market capitalization;
• High security due to the network's resistance to attacks.

Bitcoin also demonstrates the best risk-to-return ratio according to the Sharpe ratio*, which reaches 2.42, making the asset especially attractive for conservative investors.

* Sharpe ratio is a financial metric that reflects the relationship between an investment asset's return and the level of risk taken. It shows how much additional return an investor receives per unit of risk: the higher the Sharpe ratio, the more efficient the investment is considered from a risk–return perspective. Simply put, the Sharpe ratio shows how much "excess" return an investor gets for each additional risk taken. A value above 1 is considered good, above 2 is very high, and a ratio of 2.42 indicates an attractive risk–return profile even for conservative investors.

In the long term, Bitcoin's market capitalization may approach that of gold and become one of the largest assets in the world. According to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, by 2035 the value of the first cryptocurrency could reach $1.4 million with an average annual growth rate of around 30%. At the same time, according to Hougan, Bitcoin's price will exceed $240,000 as early as 2027.

According to VanEck estimates, by 2050 Bitcoin's value could reach nearly $3 million, capturing a 5–10% share of global trade and becoming one of the key reserve assets of central banks.

What will happen to Bitcoin in the future and will institutional growth continue?

As of early 2026, total net inflows into Bitcoin funds (ETFs) amounted to nearly 600,000 BTC, or about $120 billion. If the positive trend continues, capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs may accelerate in 2026.

According to Algos One Chief Marketing Officer Alex Andera, more and more public companies will add Bitcoin to their portfolios, and 2026 could become a new era for Bitcoin in the financial sector. This trend is driven by the creation of a favorable regulatory environment, for example in the U.S. and the EU, where Bitcoin's status as a commodity has been recognized. This creates the foundation for a long-term trend of institutional demand.

What will happen to Bitcoin: will BTC become a state asset?

If 2024–2025 became a period of institutional adoption for Bitcoin, 2026 may well mark the beginning of an era of state-level recognition.

In the United States, work is underway on the creation of a national crypto reserve, which is planned to be completed by summer 2026. If the initiative gains sufficient support, Bitcoin could be added to the U.S. federal balance sheet. In addition, federal backing could ensure long-term demand for the asset.

From "digital" to "programmable" gold: what will happen to Bitcoin and its ecosystem

With the development of second-layer solutions, Bitcoin has ceased to be merely a store of value and an investment asset and has become a full-fledged part of the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector and the global economy.

Over the past two years alone, the total value locked (TVL) of the Bitcoin ecosystem has increased more than 20-fold — from $307 million to nearly $7 billion, according to DeFi Llama data. A major role in the rapid development of the Bitcoin ecosystem was played by the new restaking protocol Babylon and the Lombard cross-chain bridge, which together account for more than 90% of total TVL.

The development of P2P payments using solutions such as the Lightning Network may become an alternative to banking services. In the first half of 2025 alone, the number of crypto payments exceeded 600,000.

According to various estimates, Bitcoin accounts for up to 45% of crypto payments. Although experts expect BTC's share to decline amid the growing popularity of stablecoins, absolute volumes will grow along with demand for crypto payments.

Quantum threats: what will happen to Bitcoin in the future?

The development of quantum computers continues to raise concerns within the crypto community about the security of the Bitcoin network. It is assumed that quantum computing could potentially be used to break SHA-256, the algorithm that secures the Bitcoin blockchain.

However, some experts disagree: quantum progress will not destroy the Bitcoin network but will instead stimulate its development. In other words, analysts expect the industry to transition to quantum-resistant protocols.

For example, specialists are already working on the creation of quantum-resistant signatures. There are solutions capable of withstanding quantum threats, such as Lamport signatures, as well as the CRYSTALS-Kyber, Dilithium, FALCON, and SPHINCS+ algorithms approved by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Developers have even tested a blockchain prototype that supports mining exclusively via quantum computers. The tested blockchain was based on the Proof-of-Quantum-Work (PoQW) consensus mechanism, created by analogy with the classic PoW used in the Bitcoin network.

The main vectors for the development of a quantum-resistant network may include hybrid solutions using:

• Quantum tokens and the implementation of post-quantum cryptography;
• Quantum-based key distribution and random number generation;
• New, quantum-resistant address and transaction formats;
• New mining algorithms designed for the use of quantum computers.

These algorithms can potentially be implemented into the Bitcoin blockchain via a soft fork* — without radical changes to the network's structure. According to experts, researchers still have about 5 to 10 years before quantum threats become real, after which it will be difficult to predict what will happen to Bitcoin.

* Soft fork is a blockchain protocol upgrade that introduces changes to network rules without breaking backward compatibility. Nodes that do not update their software continue to operate correctly on the network, although they do not support new features, which allows improvements to be implemented without splitting the blockchain or radically changing its architecture.