Overview of the main crypto market cycles
The crypto market also has global cycles that are generally easy to identify.
4 main cycles of the crypto market
1. Accumulation
The first cycle is known as the accumulation phase. It precedes the growth phase, during which cryptocurrencies typically reach new all-time highs (ATH). Accumulation follows a correction known among investors as the "crypto winter."
This phase begins when many pessimistic investors sell off their assets while others see an opportunity to invest in drastically undervalued assets.
During accumulation, cryptocurrency prices move sideways within a narrow range or increase slowly. This happens because sellers (bears) still exert pressure on the market, but buyers (bulls) begin to resist.
For example, Bitcoin was in this phase for about a year, starting in 2015, after its price fell from $1,000 to $200, and again during the first two quarters of 2019 after a prolonged crypto winter.
The accumulation phase is the most favorable time for medium- and long-term investments.
2. Bull Run
When few sellers are left and the number of buyers increases, the second market cycle begins — the growth phase, also known as a bull run.
During this cycle, cryptocurrency prices begin to rise rapidly. For instance, from November 2020 to November 2021, Bitcoin's price grew more than fivefold — from $13,500 to $69,000. Similarly, the price almost doubled from May 2024 to May 2025, reaching a new ATH of $111,000.
The bull run usually doesn't last long and quickly transitions into the next phase — distribution. This typically happens within a few months, as the sharp rise motivates investors to take profits.
Buying crypto during a bull run becomes riskier, but short-term gains are still possible — especially if one misses the accumulation phase. Seasoned investors often wait for the growth rate to slow down and for the market to transition into the next phase.
3. Distribution
The third cycle is the distribution phase, when many investors, including large ones, lock in profits. (Following their lead is generally wise — especially for beginners — rather than giving in to FOMO*: the fear of missing out.) During this phase, the growth rate of crypto prices sharply slows, followed by a gradual decline.
Like the bull run, the distribution phase is short and can last less than a month. A hallmark of this phase is when the price hits a ceiling and struggles to break through — or breaks it briefly before quickly dropping back.
2021 Bitcoin hit two ATHs: first in May at $63,500 and again in November at $69,000. After the second peak, the price began to decline, and the market entered the next stage.
*FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) — anxiety caused by missing a profitable opportunity.
4. Correction
The fourth and final cycle is the correction phase, the decline or bear market. During this phase, crypto prices drop significantly as buyer interest wanes. Meanwhile, investors who bought earlier start to panic and sell off their holdings, further accelerating the decline — this is FUD in action: fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
For example, in 2018, Bitcoin's price fell more than fivefold — from $20,000 to $3,800. And in 2021–2022, during another crypto winter, the price collapsed more than fourfold — from $69,000 to $15,000.
It's best to avoid buying and wait for the next accumulation phase during a correction. It's important to remember that even Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, can lose over 70% of its value during a crypto winter — and altcoins can fall by as much as 90–99%.
Are there other crypto market cycles?
Global cycles are closely linked to Bitcoin halving — an event that occurs roughly every four years when miner rewards are cut in half. This is also known as the halving cycle or Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Experts believe Bitcoin's halving is key to long-term crypto market growth.
Historically, each halving is followed by a new all-time high for Bitcoin:
- First halving in November 2012 — ATH of $1,163 in November 2013.
- Second halving in July 2016 — ATH of $20,000 in December 2017.
- Third halving in May 2020 — ATH of $69,000 in November 2021.
- Fourth halving in April 2024 — ATH of $111,000 in May 2025.
Note: A pattern emerges when analyzing halving cycles and ATHs — Bitcoin typically reaches a new ATH within a year after halving, most often near the end of the year.
Finally, there are technological cycles. These include various innovation-driven booms: