Bitcoin is falling: key reasons for the price decline and expert forecasts
At the beginning of 2026, the Bitcoin price fell to the April levels of the previous year, dropping below $90,000. Relative to the all-time high (ATH) reached in October 2025, the value of the leading cryptocurrency has declined by almost 30%.
Trump risks: Bitcoin falls due to political turbulence
The actions of the current U.S. president, Donald Trump, have repeatedly become one of the key reasons for the fall of Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. For example, in October 2025, Bitcoin fell due to the announcement of new trade tariffs against China.
Trump's current policy, particularly the tense political relations between the U.S. and Europe, is causing justified concerns among investors and may be one of the reasons Bitcoin is falling.
Wincent CEO Paul Howard noted that Trump's actions have already led to a two-percent decline in European stock markets, which could also result in a drop in cryptocurrency prices. Following stock quotes, the Bitcoin price fell by more than 7% — from $95,000 to $88,000.
The U.S. stock market is also showing negative dynamics, which correlate with Bitcoin's decline. By the end of the third week of January 2026, the leading indices, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, had fallen by more than 2%. As a rule, Bitcoin falls in line with the stock market, and other cryptocurrencies follow suit.
Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz also noted that another unfavorable factor behind Bitcoin's decline was the sell-off of long-term bonds*. According to the analyst, for Bitcoin to return to growth, it needs to overcome the psychological barrier of $100,000—$ 103,000.
* Long-term bonds are debt securities with a long maturity (usually 10 years or more) and are sensitive to changes in interest rates and macroeconomic expectations. Their mass sell-off often indicates rising uncertainty in financial markets and can intensify capital outflows from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Experts predict that in the short term, selling pressure will persist until clarity emerges regarding Trump's policies. According to analysts, Bitcoin's price may drop to $80,000, although experts do not rule out a rebound to $100,000.
Bitcoin is falling due to "market overheating"
Some analysts believe that the current winter has become a cooling period for cryptocurrencies, as the market became significantly "overheated," and investors are taking profits after the strong crypto rally* of 2025, as a result of which Bitcoin fell.
* Crypto rally — a period of rapid and sustained growth in cryptocurrency prices, accompanied by increased investor interest, rising trading volumes, and heightened speculative activity in the market.
Negative dynamics are not only due to short-term traders but also to investor actions: Bitcoin is falling under increasing pressure from long-term BTC holders who are selling rather than accumulating. Data shows that long-term investors took profits during Bitcoin price rebounds in December 2025 and January 2026.
Experts note that the wave of selling after local Bitcoin growth arises from investor uncertainty about Bitcoin's return to a bullish trend. As a result, Bitcoin falls due to reduced buyer activity, as investors act cautiously amid uncertainty.
Bitget Research analyst Brian Lee also notes a decline in investors' risk appetite and calls the current Bitcoin period a "flight phase." In his opinion, Bitcoin will most likely trade in the range of $85,000—95,000 in the near future.
Not only Bitcoin is falling: crypto market indicators show a worsening picture
The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to levels last seen in December, when Bitcoin dropped below $90,000. The current index value is 34, signaling fear and indicating a predominance of selling in the crypto market. According to Glassnode, 68,500 BTC were sold on exchanges over the past month alone.
Information on crypto ETFs* also shows a disappointing picture: according to CoinMarketCap's Bitcoin ETF Tracker, net outflows from Bitcoin funds exceeded $1 billion over the past week. This became a record since November 2025.
* Crypto ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) — exchange-traded investment funds that track the value of a cryptocurrency or a basket of crypto assets and are traded on traditional stock exchanges. Such instruments allow investors to gain exposure to the crypto market without directly owning digital assets.
Outflows from Bitcoin funds are correlated with Bitcoin's decline in January 2026. If the trend continues, Bitcoin's decline may persist and even intensify under the influence of other negative factors. According to a bearish scenario from several analysts, Bitcoin's price may fall to the range of $60,000—$78,000.
On January 20, a record liquidation of long positions (longs)* in 2026 was recorded, reaching almost $1 billion in a single day. The last time such a large liquidation occurred was in early December 2025, when Bitcoin fell to $86,000. The cascade of sell-offs affected more than 180,000 traders.
* Long (long position) — a trading position in which a trader profits from an asset's price increase by buying it directly or using borrowed funds.
How Fed policy affects why Bitcoin is falling
Bitcoin is falling despite the easing monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed): in 2025, the agency cut rates three times, lowering the rate from 4—4.25% to 3.5—3.75%. Analysts expect the Fed to cut the key rate two more times in the first quarter of 2026 to slow inflation, with the target rate at 3—3.25%.
Experts note that when the Fed cuts rates, investors' appetite for high-risk assets grows, as returns on traditional financial instruments decline. So why did Bitcoin fall?
There is a view that, according to analysts' expectations, the Fed may return to tightening monetary policy and restrain further rate cuts. If this happens, demand for high-risk assets may decline, leading Bitcoin to fall again.