Bitcoin’s “golden cross”: how strong is this market signal?
What is a "golden cross"?
A technical pattern known as a "golden cross" has formed on the daily Bitcoin chart, CoinDesk reported. This indicator is traditionally considered bullish and may point to the possibility of further gains in the price of the leading cryptocurrency.
A "golden cross" occurs when the 50-day moving average*, which reflects an asset's average price over the previous 50 days, rises above the 200-day moving average, which represents the market's longer-term trend.
* Moving average is a technical indicator that shows the average price of an asset over a specified period of time. For example, a 50-day moving average uses prices from the previous 50 days, while a 200-day moving average uses prices from the previous 200 days. This indicator helps smooth out the impact of short-term price fluctuations and makes the market's overall direction easier to identify.
This crossover is generally interpreted as a positive trading signal: short-term upward momentum begins to outpace the longer-term trend, potentially creating conditions for a sustained price increase.
However, the "golden cross" has an important limitation: it is a lagging, not leading, indicator. Moving averages are calculated using price movements that have already occurred, meaning the crossover may appear only after a significant portion of the rally has already taken place. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day periods have no special mathematical properties — they became standard primarily through decades of widespread use by traders across different financial markets.
How does Bitcoin react to a "golden cross"?
However, Bitcoin's historical performance shows that the appearance of a "golden cross" does not always lead to a prolonged rally.
Throughout the history of the leading cryptocurrency, this pattern has formed 12 times. As a rule, its effect is considered to have ended once the opposite technical signal appears — the so-called "death cross"*.
* "Death cross" is a technical pattern opposite to the "golden cross." It occurs when a short-term moving average, most commonly the 50-day average, falls below the longer-term 200-day moving average. This crossover means recent price performance has weakened relative to the longer-term trend, which is why traders often interpret it as a possible sign of an emerging downtrend.
Only in three cases — in 2012, 2015, and 2020 — did the price of Bitcoin rise significantly over the year following the formation of a "golden cross." On average, Bitcoin's price increased by approximately 250% over the year after a "golden cross" formed.
In nine out of the 12 cases in which a "golden cross" appeared, Bitcoin's price was higher three months later than it had been at the time the signal emerged. The size of the increase varied by case, but on average Bitcoin gained 24.9% over those three months.
Thus, a "golden cross" by itself does not guarantee the beginning of a long-term bull market. According to CoinDesk, historically this signal has resulted in premature bull traps* roughly three times more often than it has marked the beginning of a multi-year rally.
* Bull trap is a market situation in which the price begins to rise, creating the impression that a sustainable upward trend is forming. Buyers enter the market expecting further gains, but the price soon reverses and starts to decline. As a result, investors who bought the asset amid the wave of optimism are left with losses.
What does Bitcoin's current technical picture show?
At the same time, the current "golden cross" appeared after a notable market recovery. By early September, Bitcoin had gained around 30% from its August lows and moved above several key moving averages at once — the 21-day, 55-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages.
However, the August rally has not yet brought Bitcoin back to this year's highs. At around $79,000 on September 9, BTC was about 19% below its 2026 peak of $97,900 and about 37% below its all-time high of $126,223, set in October 2025. This shows that despite the notable recovery of recent weeks, Bitcoin remains significantly below its record levels.
Another technical factor is also viewed as supportive of the bullish scenario. USDT's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is approaching the formation of its own "death cross": its 50-day moving average is moving toward crossing below the 200-day moving average.
A decline in the dominance of the largest stablecoin often signals rising investor interest in riskier assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.
Another factor supporting the market remains demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs*. During the trading week that ended on September 4, their combined net inflows totaled approximately $1 billion, marking the third consecutive week of positive flows.
* ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is an exchange-traded investment fund whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange. The fund itself holds certain assets — for example, stocks, bonds, gold, or Bitcoin — while investors purchase shares in the fund, thereby gaining exposure to changes in the value of those assets without having to buy and store them directly.
What could affect Bitcoin's price movement going forward?
As of 14:00 Moscow time on September 8, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $78,700. Over the previous 24 hours, the cryptocurrency had fallen by 1.2%, while its price remained roughly unchanged compared with a week earlier.
Bitcoin's price is also currently being significantly influenced by the macroeconomic environment. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remains around 4.8%, while oil prices have approached $100 per barrel amid an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
Higher bond yields make risk-free instruments more attractive than volatile assets, while rising oil prices intensify inflation concerns. As a result, Bitcoin's near-term performance depends not only on cryptocurrency market indicators but also on inflation data and the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.
Last week, analysts also drew attention to the formation of another technical pattern on Bitcoin's chart — the "Bart Simpson pattern"*. Unlike the "golden cross," this formation is considered a negative signal. If it plays out, Bitcoin's price could return to the levels seen before the August rally began — around $60,000.
* "Bart Simpson pattern" is the informal name for a distinctive formation on a price chart. First, the price moves sharply upward or downward, then fluctuates within roughly the same range for a period of time, after which it moves just as sharply in the opposite direction. As a result, the chart visually resembles the shape of Bart Simpson's head. This pattern is often associated with abrupt liquidity shifts and high volatility.