What will happen to USDT: will Tether maintain its dominance in the stablecoin market
The question "what will happen to USDT" remains one of the most discussed in the crypto industry amid the global growth of stablecoins and tightening regulation.
As of January 2026, Tether (USDT) remains the dominant stablecoin by market capitalization and ranks third in the overall cryptocurrency ranking. According to CoinMarketCap, the market capitalization of the USDT stablecoin is $186 billion — over the past year alone, this figure has grown by more than 22%.
This dynamic confirms that the answer to the question "what will happen to USDT" is primarily linked to institutional and retail demand for digital dollar assets.
What will happen to USDT in the near future?
Data shows that the USDT stablecoin is more in demand as a payment instrument rather than a trading tool. According to Chainalysis and Artemis, in 2025 alone, USDT payments of less than $1,000 each, totaling $156 billion, were processed. This indicates that what will happen to USDT in the near future directly depends on the growth of retail usage and micropayments.
The total volume of stablecoin transactions in 2025 increased by more than 80% compared to the previous year. According to the co-founder of Artemis, this trend is driven by growing demand for stablecoins in developing countries, particularly in Latin America and Africa.
According to Bloomberg analysts' forecasts, by 2030, the volume of stablecoin transactions could approach $56 trillion, and USDT will retain its dominant influence in this segment. If the forecast is realized, then what will happen to USDT is a further strengthening of its role as a global settlement instrument outside the traditional banking system.
According to estimates from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the total stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by 2028. Experts consider USDT to be one of the primary beneficiaries of this trend, alongside USDC.
What will happen to USDT in the legal field?
In 2026, changes in stablecoin regulation are expected, particularly the adoption of the GENIUS Act in the United States. The GENIUS Act will become the first legislative act in the U.S. to establish rules for regulating stablecoins within the country, including requirements for reserves, transparency, and compliance with anti–money laundering (AML) regulations. Regulatory clarity reduces systemic risks and creates an optimistic outlook for USDT in the near future.
Experts believe that other countries will follow the example of the U.S. For instance, after the signing of the GENIUS Act, Canada and the United Kingdom resumed efforts to integrate stablecoins into their financial systems. Thus, the UK Financial Conduct Authority has been developing its own stablecoin regimes since 2025.
Also, according to expert observations, the signing of the GENIUS Act bill led to increased interest from central U.S. commercial banks such as Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo, which are considering the possibility of issuing a joint stablecoin.
The adoption of stablecoins at the state level opens the door to institutional investment. The well-known money transfer system Western Union has already announced plans to launch a blockchain-based stablecoin settlement system on the Solana network. Major payment systems Zelle and MoneyGram also plan to launch solutions with stablecoin integration to speed up and reduce the cost of cross-border payments. The growth of institutional interest strengthens trust in the market and affects what will happen to USDT in the medium term.
State recognition of USDT will likely lead to an increase in the number of integrations of the stablecoin into payment systems and, as a result, growth in the number of stablecoin users. However, this will not affect the EU market, which has restricted the use of the USDT stablecoin due to the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) bill, which has entered into force.
However, according to experts, losses in the European market will be offset by the growing number of payments in developing countries such as the UAE, Brazil, Nigeria, and El Salvador, where USDT is increasingly in demand. It is also expected that the number of financial institutions accepting the USDT stablecoin will increase. For example, the well-known payment service Mercado Libre in Argentina is actively integrating USDT into its settlement systems — a trend that will likely continue in the near future.
One of the main reasons for the demand for USDT lies in high inflation in developing countries. According to JPMorgan analysts' forecasts, the capitalization of USDT will increase, and the total market capitalization of the stablecoin segment could reach $500–600 billion by 2028.
The situation with USDT on the global stage could only be shaken by competition from central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), such as the digital yuan in China and the digital euro in the EU, which are at the legislative level.
The position of USDT may also worsen if reserves depreciate due to a weakening U.S. dollar exchange rate and possible problems with the solvency of the U.S. government, since the country's government bonds also back the stablecoin.
What will happen to USDT in the decentralized finance (DeFi) market?
Although USDT dominates by market capitalization, according to Bloomberg specialists, in the DeFi segment, the leading stablecoin its competitor, USDC from Circle. According to experts, in the DeFi market, traders prefer USDC more for entering and exiting positions than USDT.
By transaction volume, USDT also lags behind USDC. According to Bloomberg statistics, the total volume of stablecoin transactions in 2025 reached $33 trillion. USDC accounted for $18.3 trillion in volume, while USDT accounted for only $13.3 trillion.
However, experts note that USDT continues to dominate in regular payments and B2B operations. According to an Artemis report, USDT accounted for more than 86% of transaction volume in the stablecoin market in 2025, and monthly B2B payment volume exceeded a record $3 billion due to low fees and nearly instant settlements in cross-border transactions.
It is expected that this trend will continue in the near future. As noted by Bloomberg, the main drivers of growth in USDT payments will be the expansion of institutional use and more active adoption of stablecoins in countries with high inflation and unstable economies. This is what will happen to USDT in the near term.