Why Bitcoin is rising: reasons for the growth and Bitcoin price forecast for 2026

At the end of August 2026, the Bitcoin price started to rise again and climbed above $80,000 for the first time since May, after which the price of the leading cryptocurrency declined slightly. As of early September, the price of Bitcoin had risen to $79,100 following the summer decline.

In June, the Bitcoin price fell to $58,500, reaching a two-year low — the last time such a low level was recorded was back in February 2024. Since falling to its local low, the Bitcoin price has risen by more than 35%. At the same time, in the past month alone, the Bitcoin price has risen by almost 25% — the strongest growth recorded since the beginning of the year.

What is the reason for Bitcoin's rise?

Experts point to several reasons for Bitcoin's rise in August 2026. Analysts associate the first reason for Bitcoin's rise with the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Experts came to this conclusion following statements by the current U.S. President Donald Trump, who publicly said that progress could be made on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

According to analysts, an improvement in the situation in the Middle East could reduce the risks of oil price spikes and also ease inflationary pressure on the global economy. This could boost high-risk assets and, in turn, contribute to Bitcoin's rise.

The importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the global economy is difficult to overstate. Before the large-scale disruptions, around 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through it every day — approximately one-fifth of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption. As a result, any news about the situation in the strait quickly affects oil prices, inflation expectations, and sentiment in financial markets.

Nevertheless, experts note that, as of now, the United States and Iran have not reached any official agreements regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, the Bitcoin price rose in August based solely on positive expectations.

Bitcoin also rose amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) would ease monetary policy. In July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published its U.S. employment report. According to the report, instead of the expected increase of 85,000 jobs, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs.

According to analysts, a deterioration in the U.S. labor market could lead to a reduction in the Fed's key interest rate, which in practice usually increases investors' appetite for high-risk assets such as Bitcoin. This could provide an additional stimulus for Bitcoin's rise in the autumn of 2026.

Another possible reason why Bitcoin is rising, according to analysts, is greater clarity regarding cryptocurrency sector regulation. A new CLARITY Act bill, also known as the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," could give Bitcoin an additional boost.

The bill is intended to bring crypto exchanges out of the "gray area" and give the "green light" to investors who avoid the digital asset market because of regulatory uncertainty, which could, in turn, lead to an additional inflow of liquidity.

According to the latest media reports, the U.S. Senate is expected to consider the CLARITY Act in September 2026. Passage of the bill during the autumn session could become an additional reason for Bitcoin's rise in 2026.

At the same time, capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are being observed, which could also be a positive sign for the crypto market and one of the reasons why the Bitcoin price is rising over the past two months.

The second half of August was particularly telling. On August 20 alone, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled about $606.3 million. At a Bitcoin price of around $80,000, this corresponds to the value of approximately 7,600 BTC — 16 times more than the average number of new bitcoins currently created by miners per day. This does not mean that ETFs are buying exclusively newly mined coins, but it clearly demonstrates the scale of potential demand relative to new supply.

In addition, analysts note that October is approaching, and it has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin. In the crypto community, a separate term has even been coined for this phenomenon — "Uptober."

For example, in October 2024, the Bitcoin price rose by almost 11% — from $63,000 to $69,900.

And in October 2025, the Bitcoin price rose by more than 10%, once again reaching a new all-time high of $126,200. According to analysts' observations, since 2013, the average Bitcoin price increase in October has been 14.4%. At the same time, 10 out of 13 October periods ended with growth for Bitcoin, while only 3 ended with declines.

Among the main reasons why Bitcoin usually rises in October, experts highlight the following:

• An inflow of liquidity caused by capital allocation by pension and investment funds, as well as institutional investors, ahead of the end of the financial year;
• Macroeconomic factors, generally associated with positive signals from traditional markets, such as easing of the Fed's monetary policy and growth in stock market indices;
• The connection with spot cryptocurrency-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), whose performance to some extent correlates with the global financial system.

Bitcoin also began to rise amid positive momentum in the U.S. stock market. For example, the U.S. stock index NASDAQ Composite* has risen by almost 4% over the past month, while the S&P 500* has gained 2.6%.

* NASDAQ Composite is one of the major U.S. stock market indices that reflects changes in the value of shares of companies traded on the NASDAQ exchange. It includes several thousand companies, with technology companies accounting for a significant share.

* S&P 500 is one of the best-known U.S. stock market indices, calculated based on the share prices of around 500 of the largest publicly traded American companies. It includes companies from various sectors of the economy — technology, finance, industry, healthcare, energy, and others. The index is widely used by investors as one of the key indicators of the overall condition of the U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy.

Will Bitcoin rise even Further?

Some experts believe the negative macroeconomic environment in the market persists, which could limit future Bitcoin growth.

Another factor that could put pressure on the price and "slow down" Bitcoin's growth is the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Analysts are observing a trend toward reductions in mining farm capacity, linked to the declining profitability of BTC mining caused by the fall in the Bitcoin price during the first half of 2026.

The reason is that one of the main assets of large miners now relies not only on BTC mining equipment but also on access to large amounts of electricity. The same infrastructure can also support high-performance computing and data centers, demand for which has increased sharply with the rise of AI.

A notable example is mining company TeraWulf, which in July 2026 signed a 20-year agreement to provide data center infrastructure for Anthropic. The expected revenue under the contract amounts to around $19 billion. Another former major crypto miner, Hut 8, signed a 15-year AI infrastructure contract worth $9.8 billion.

The trend toward reduced mining activity is accompanied by large miners selling their Bitcoin reserves, which also puts additional pressure on the Bitcoin price.

For example, MARA, the largest U.S. company focused on Bitcoin mining, sold more than 23,000 BTC, worth about $1.6 billion, during the first two quarters of 2026.

Even though the Bitcoin price rose in July and August, according to observations by the CryptoQuant analytics platform, miners' total reserves decreased by 265 BTC during the final week of the summer alone, falling to 1.19 million BTC.

The Bitcoin network's total computing power (hash rate) also fell to 900 TH/s, more than 10% lower than the May 2026 figure.

Nevertheless, some analysts believe that Bitcoin's growth will continue through the end of 2026. For example, according to some experts, the Bitcoin price could rise to $100,000.

However, analysts note that Bitcoin growth will be possible if the Fed sends positive signals about easing monetary policy.