The entire internet is burying Bitcoin: why this could mark the beginning of a new rally
Negative sentiment surrounding Bitcoin has reached a local peak, while market sentiment* indicators have remained predominantly in the fear zone for almost a year. However, analysts believe that widespread pessimism may indicate not only market weakness but also the approach of a long-awaited reversal.
* Sentiment (market sentiment) is the collective attitude of market participants toward a particular asset, group of assets, or the market as a whole. Sentiment reflects investors' prevailing expectations: whether they anticipate prices rising, falling, or maintaining their current trajectory. It is assessed by analyzing publications in the media and on social networks, search queries, trading activity, fund flows to and from exchanges, the ratio of long to short positions, and other indicators. Positive sentiment usually reflects optimism and a willingness to buy, while negative sentiment reflects pessimism and a desire to sell the asset.
"Bitcoin is dead": retail investors are preparing to give up
The Santiment analytics platform has recorded a sharp increase in negative comments about Bitcoin on social media. The platform tracks transactions across various cryptocurrency networks and analyzes the frequency and emotional tone of keywords mentioned in relevant publications. It is one of the crypto industry's largest analytics services, alongside Glassnode, CryptoQuant, Nansen, and Arkham.
According to Santiment, phrases such as "Bitcoin is dead," "Bitcoin is dying," "Bitcoin is finished," and "Bitcoin is over" have once again become increasingly common in discussions on popular social media platforms.
For analysts, it is not only the negative nature of these posts that matters, but also the speed at which such messages spread. If the number of pessimistic mentions rises sharply over a short period, it may indicate emotional capitulation — this kind of rhetoric suggests that retail investors are running out of patience. A price decline or a prolonged absence of significant Bitcoin growth causes many market participants to interpret temporary weakness in the crypto market as its final collapse.
In the past, however, similar surges in pessimism often appeared shortly before prices recovered. The crypto market frequently begins moving against the expectations of the majority, especially when participants have already become convinced that the rally is definitively over.
When talk of "Bitcoin's death" becomes widespread while the cryptocurrency holds key price levels, more patient investors may accumulate Bitcoin. At the same time, some sellers leave the market, gradually reducing the pressure on the price of the leading cryptocurrency.
This is why Santiment considers the current situation potentially attractive for long-term buyers. Historically, widespread claims about the collapse of cryptocurrencies have often emerged when the pool of investors willing to sell was already nearly exhausted.
What happened to the price the last time Bitcoin was "declared dead"
The last similar increase in pessimistic publications occurred in June 2026. At the time, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 twice, reaching its lowest price since late 2024. Over the following one to two weeks, the Bitcoin price recovered by approximately 10% from its local low.
The current situation is different, however. As of August 14, market participants' fear is tied less to a sharp price drop than to a prolonged sideways trend, low volatility, and declining trading volumes.
This situation is sometimes described as capitulation through boredom. Instead of a sudden panic-driven sell-off, the market gradually loses activity: investors stop expecting rapid growth, trade less frequently, and shift their attention to other instruments. This process can continue for months and may end without a sharp final crash.
Another contributing factor has been investors shifting their attention to traditional financial instruments, including company stocks, commodities, and other assets.
In the stock market, companies associated with artificial intelligence have taken center stage, particularly chip manufacturers Nvidia, Intel, and Broadcom.
Among commodities, copper stood out: its price reached record highs amid demand from data centers, the energy industry, and electrification projects. Interest in gold also remained strong, supported by geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, and demand for safe-haven assets. As a result, these markets offered investors more noticeable price movements, while Bitcoin continued to trade within a narrow range.
Six months without growth: why Bitcoin has stalled
As of August 14, Bitcoin was trading below $63,000. Since June, its price has remained mostly within the $60,000–66,000 range, and since July the corridor has narrowed to about $62,000–65,000.
Bitcoin has fallen by almost 30% since the beginning of the year. Compared with its all-time high of $126,200, reached in early October last year, the decline amounts to around 50%.
The sideways movement has been accompanied by declining trading activity. Bitcoin trading volume measured by the number of coins has fallen to its lowest level since 2019.
At the same time, Bitcoin funds have faced substantial capital outflows. In June alone, the largest spot Bitcoin ETFs* lost more than $4.5 billion in investor funds. Since the beginning of the year, total net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $4.7 billion, despite significant capital inflows in individual months.
* ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is an investment fund whose shares or units can be freely bought and sold on an exchange in the same way as ordinary stocks. A fund may track the value of a particular asset, index, or group of assets. A spot Bitcoin ETF invests directly in Bitcoin and backs its shares with actual cryptocurrency held by a specialized custodian. This instrument allows investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin's price movements through a traditional brokerage account without having to buy, store, and secure the cryptocurrency themselves.
Analysts also describe the current bear market* as one of the most difficult periods for the crypto industry. Hundreds of projects, including cryptocurrency exchanges, have ceased operations, while approximately 80% of the combined revenue generated by protocols is concentrated among just three projects — Hyperliquid, Pump.fun, and Ethena. Hyperliquid and Pump.fun account for 67% of all crypto application revenue, while the inclusion of Ethena brings the three market leaders' combined share to almost 80%.
* Bear market is a prolonged period during which asset prices predominantly decline, demand weakens, and pessimistic expectations prevail among market participants. In traditional markets, a decline of at least 20% from a recent high is often formally considered the beginning of a bear market. In the highly volatile crypto market, however, this indicator alone is insufficient. Analysts also consider the duration of the decline, trading volumes, capital inflows and outflows, investor activity, and the overall state of the industry. The term is associated with the way a bear attacks by striking its paw downward, symbolizing falling prices.
These projects generate revenue from different segments of the crypto market. Hyperliquid specializes in decentralized derivatives trading, Pump.fun provides infrastructure for issuing and trading memecoins, while Ethena is developing the USDe synthetic dollar. Their leadership shows that even in a weak market, users still pay for products with clear practical applications.
At the same time, the high revenue concentration highlights the problems faced by the rest of the industry. Projects that existed primarily by issuing tokens and relying on speculative interest and a constant influx of new users proved particularly vulnerable once liquidity declined.
Almost a year of fear: what crypto market participants expect
Negative rhetoric on social media is intensifying against the backdrop of prolonged pessimism. According to the Alternative platform, the Fear & Greed Index* stood at 29 out of 100 on August 14, corresponding to a state of "fear."
* Fear & Greed Index is a composite indicator designed to assess the prevailing emotions of market participants. In its cryptocurrency version, the index usually ranges from 0 to 100: the lower the value, the stronger investors' fear and caution; the higher the value, the more pronounced their greed, optimism, and willingness to purchase risky assets. Its calculation may factor in volatility, trading volumes, market momentum, interest in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin dominance, and social media activity.
Recently, the index has moved out of the fear zone only briefly — in January and May. After that, market sentiment deteriorated once again.
Notably, the most recent period of pronounced "greed" was recorded on October 10, 2025 — the day of the largest crypto market crash. At the time, at least $19 billion worth of trading positions were liquidated.
This example demonstrates that market sentiment should not be treated as an unambiguous forecast. Fear does not guarantee an imminent rally, just as greed does not necessarily mean that a rally will continue. However, extreme pessimism may indicate that a significant share of negative expectations is already priced in, while the potential for further widespread selling gradually diminishes.