“Black Saturday” of the crypto market: the historic cryptocurrency crash of 2025

During the night of October 11, 2025, a large-scale cryptocurrency collapse occurred, which analysts describe as the biggest in the history of the crypto market. Bitcoin prices dropped by $20,000 in a matter of hours, while some altcoins plunged by more than 60%. Experts have already dubbed the October crash "Black Saturday."

Causes and consequences of the cryptocurrency crash

The cryptocurrency crash on October 11 occurred following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of 100% import tariffs on Chinese goods. According to Trump, the new trade tariffs will take effect on November 1, 2025.

The stock and crypto markets immediately reacted to the news. As stock indices fell, the prices of digital assets plummeted: the total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped by more than 12% in less than half a day, from $4.14 trillion to $3.69 trillion. During the same period, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell almost 20% — from $122,000 to $102,000.

Key altcoins suffered even greater losses: Ethereum (ETH), the largest by market cap, fell about 28%, from $4,400 to a three-month low of $3,435. BNB crashed to $1,000, XRP to $1.84, and Solana (SOL) to $176. The hardest hit was Toncoin (TON), which lost nearly 80% of its value.

Amid the crash, the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 24 points, signaling "extreme fear" among investors, but later recovered to 40 (a neutral level).

According to analysts, the sharp decline was primarily due to the outflow of institutional investments. Fearing a trade war between China and the U.S., major crypto investors ("whales") began withdrawing funds from cryptocurrencies into cash, triggering a massive sell-off and widespread liquidations in futures markets.

Another contributing factor, experts say, was the large number of open long positions, whose forced liquidations intensified the downward movement.

According to Blockbeats, over $19 billion worth of crypto positions were liquidated overnight — a record figure. More than 35% of this amount came from Bitcoin and Ethereum positions. Over 1.6 million traders were affected, with the majority trading on Binance and Hyperliquid.

Some analysts estimate that total sell-offs on the crypto market may have exceeded $30 billion due to risk overestimation amid geopolitical tensions.

The withdrawal of institutional funds and mass liquidations triggered a chain reaction, exacerbating the cryptocurrency crash through panic selling by retail investors.

Within the crypto community, many believe that the closure of the most significant market positions was part of a coordinated attack on traders, taking advantage of market chaos.

Renowned journalist Colin Wu reported that attackers exploited an Undefined Account function vulnerability, allowing them to use the stablecoin Ethena USDe (USDe) — the third-largest after Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) — as collateral.

According to Wu, the hackers dumped about $90 million worth of USDe on the market, causing a temporary depeg of the stablecoin from the U.S. dollar. At one point, USDe's price dropped below $0.70 on exchanges before later recovering its peg.

Some wrapped crypto assets, including bnSOL and wBETH, also lost their peg due to low liquidity. The depeg caused investor losses of about $283 million on Binance. However, Binance later reported full compensation for the losses while denying any connection between the depegging and the crypto crash.

Crypto community outrage intensified following reports of insider trading: an unknown investor allegedly opened prominent short positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum 30 minutes before the liquidation cascade, earning around $200 million from the subsequent drop.

Some market participants compared the incident to the Terra and FTX collapses. However, Moonrock Capital founder Simon Dedic noted that this crash differs from 2022's meltdown, as there were no underlying fundamental flaws this time.

Current situation and forecasts

As of October 13, 2025, nearly all major cryptocurrencies have partially recovered from the Saturday crash, though only a few altcoins have regained their previous levels.

Over the past week, BTC lost about 8% of its value, while ETH, XRP, and SOL dropped by 10%, 14%, and 18%, respectively. Among the top 20 coins, DOGE fell 20%, AVAX 26%, and Sui 22%. BNB was the only cryptocurrency in the group to rise, by 4% to $1,300, nearing its all-time high again.

The market rebound may indicate renewed investor optimism. According to a CoinShares report, institutional inflows into crypto between October 4–10 reached nearly $3.2 billion, while total outflows (mainly from Ethereum) on October 10 amounted to only $179 million.

Analysts expect Bitcoin to consolidate between $110,000 and $120,000 in the coming weeks. In the medium term, the first cryptocurrency could reach $150,000 by the second half of 2026. However, recovery could slow if trade wars persist or large companies and investors face bankruptcies.

Some economists believe Bitcoin will fluctuate between $100,000 and $115,000 until the end of 2025, with long-term performance depending on political developments. Experts note that Bitcoin could reach $120,000–$130,000 only if negotiations between Beijing and Washington begin.

Amid the cryptocurrency crash, analysts have revised their forecasts. For example, the consensus forecast for Bitcoin in 2025 from leading institutional investors has been lowered from $160,000 to $150,000, though it remains optimistic.

According to other experts, under the base scenario, which they consider the most likely, the price of the leading cryptocurrency will fluctuate within the range of $95,000–135,000 over the next two to three months. The bullish scenario, in their view, envisions Bitcoin rising to $150,000–200,000.

Overall, Bloomberg analysts predict that the market will stabilize by early 2026, following the Federal Reserve's policy easing after the cryptocurrency downturn.