Kalshi and prediction markets: how event trading works
Prediction markets have evolved from niche platforms into a separate segment of the crypto industry, with TVL exceeding $420 million as of September 2026, according to DefiLlama.
According to CNBC estimates, trading volume on prediction markets reached around $64 billion in 2025. By 2030, Bernstein forecasts this figure could exceed $1 trillion.
Alongside Polymarket, the Kalshi platform is one of the main beneficiaries of the prediction market industry and holds a leading position in this segment.
Kalshi — what kind of platform is it?
Kalshi is a prediction market platform that lets users trade contracts on various events, such as sports results, presidential election outcomes, economic report data, and more.
Kalshi and similar platforms such as Polymarket and OPINION are also referred to as event contract exchanges.
The Kalshi platform was launched in 2021 and is headquartered in New York. Kalshi became one of the first prediction market platforms to receive an official license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Even before its launch, in 2020, Kalshi received Designated Contract Market (DCM) status, making it the first regulated financial exchange specializing in event contract trading.
Despite the wide variety of event contracts, according to the Financial Times, around 90% of activity on the Kalshi platform comes from sporting events, which generated nearly 90% of the exchange's revenue in 2025.
As of September 2026, Kalshi is the leading prediction market platform by weekly trading volume, which exceeds $2.6 billion, significantly outperforming other platforms. For comparison, the same figure for Polymarket, the second-largest prediction market platform, is only $872 million, which is roughly three times lower than Kalshi's volume.
How does Kalshi work?
The Kalshi platform works on a principle similar to Polymarket: the main trading instrument on the platform is an event contract with two possible answers to a question about the outcome of a particular event — "Yes" or "No."
Examples of such questions may include:
- Will the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates in 2026?
- Will inflation rise above a certain level?
- Will the price of Bitcoin increase by a specific point in time?
- Will a particular football team win a specific match, and so on?
Event contracts on the Kalshi platform trade between $0.01 and $1. The price of a Kalshi contract depends on the balance between "Yes" and "No" positions and corresponds to the implied probability of the event outcome.
For example, if a "Yes" contract on Kalshi is priced at $0.80, users estimate the probability of a positive outcome at 80%. In this case, if the event occurs, the platform pays traders $1, while the "No" contracts become worthless. Settlement with Kalshi users occurs after the event concludes, based on data from key sources, which may include news reports or statistics published in official releases.
The price of an event contract on the Kalshi platform is dynamic and depends on users' positions regarding a particular event outcome. This figure can change at any time depending on market sentiment, breaking news, or the publication of new data.
Key features of Kalshi
One of the main features of Kalshi is its regulatory status, which allows users from the United States to access the platform. This distinguishes Kalshi from major competitors such as Polymarket, which do not hold licenses to offer event contract trading on the U.S. market.
In addition, its licenses require Kalshi to comply with U.S. legislation, protect customer funds, and maintain transparency in its rules.
Another distinguishing feature of Kalshi is its interface. Compared with competing platforms, Kalshi looks more like a traditional exchange than a prediction market platform.
Trades on the Kalshi platform are executed using market and limit orders. Kalshi users can open and close trading positions, locking in profits or losses just as they would in conventional trading.
The Kalshi platform also supports fiat transactions, while many alternative platforms are primarily focused on cryptocurrencies.
This allows traders to deposit and withdraw funds from the Kalshi platform using not only cryptocurrencies, but also traditional payment methods such as:
- Debit and credit cards;
- Payment systems and electronic wallets;
- Bank transfers.
In addition, Kalshi has a low barrier to entry: the minimum deposit amount is just $1. This lets users get familiar with how the platform works and try trading event contracts without depositing a large amount immediately.
Kalshi's impact on the cryptocurrency market
Kalshi has moved beyond being simply a prediction market platform and has become part of the global trading infrastructure of the cryptocurrency sector. The Kalshi platform competes with crypto exchanges for retail investors and is expanding into futures contract trading.
For example, Kalshi was added to a dedicated Prediction Markets section on the well-known Robinhood platform. In the third quarter of 2025, Robinhood reported $2.3 billion in trading volume through its Kalshi section.
In addition, Reuters reported that, amid growing interest in prediction markets, Kalshi joined forces with Robinhood, Coinbase, and Underdog to combat insider trading and develop common industry standards.
At the same time, Coinbase and Kalshi began offering U.S. investors access to regulated perpetual cryptocurrency futures trading. This launch marked a strategic shift for Kalshi, bringing the platform into the growing market for cryptocurrency derivatives*.
* Derivatives are financial instruments whose value depends on the price or another indicator of an underlying asset. Such an underlying asset may include cryptocurrencies, stocks, currencies, commodities, interest rates, stock market indices, and other financial indicators. The most common types of derivatives include futures, options, and perpetual futures contracts. They allow traders to profit from changes in an asset's price without owning the asset directly and are also used for risk hedging.