Halving effect: myth or market pattern?
The halving is a deflationary mechanism embedded in the Bitcoin protocol that reduces miner rewards by 50% every 210,000 blocks.
According to the Blockchair service, the next Bitcoin halving is expected in less than three years — around April 12, 2028.
The most recent Bitcoin halving at the time of writing took place on April 20, 2024.
Does halving affect Bitcoin's price? BTC price dynamics and expert opinions
Historically, it has been observed that approximately a year after each halving, Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high (ATH). For example, following the halving on May 11, 2020, the price of Bitcoin reached a new ATH of $63,500 in April 2021.
At the same time, according to market data, a bear market (correction phase) usually precedes a halving. And a bull market (growth phase) tends to follow.
Amid rising demand for Bitcoin, the reduction in BTC issuance positively influences the cryptocurrency's price growth. The decrease in coin supply (due to lower block rewards) is considered one of the main factors affecting the price of the first cryptocurrency.
Experts note that the effect of a BTC halving is not immediate and typically manifests after several months, depending on investor sentiment. According to analysts at Glassnode, the delay can range from 6 months to a year. Additionally, other factors such as macroeconomic indicators (e.g., U.S. market data) and institutional adoption also influence the attainment of a new Bitcoin ATH.
Following the most recent halving, Bitcoin reached a new ATH in just five months — in October 2024. The price of the leading cryptocurrency rose above $70,000. By December of the same year, Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark for the first time. Key factors contributing to the new ATH included the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, the influx of institutional investment, and the rise to power of crypto-friendly Donald Trump in the U.S.
Previously, a well-known Twitter (X) analyst and creator of the Stock-to-Flow model known as PlanB predicted that after the 2024 halving, BTC could exceed $100,000 due to the reduction in issuance, which ultimately happened. As of August 2025, the price of the leading cryptocurrency stands at $115,000, with its ATH recorded in July at $123,000.
For comparison, after the previous Bitcoin halving, the price of the first cryptocurrency reached a new ATH only about 7 months later — in December 2020. Bitcoin continued its growth amid the DeFi and NFT boom, reaching a new ATH of $69,000 in November 2021.
According to Michael Saylor, head of the company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), halving increases BTC scarcity and accelerates its adoption as "digital gold" on the international stage. Some experts believe that Bitcoin halving reduces inflation in the first cryptocurrency and, as a result, boosts demand and ultimately price.
However, not all experts agree with this perspective. Some analysts argue that halving is already priced into the cryptocurrency, and therefore, this event has no real effect on Bitcoin's market value. For instance, economist and well-known Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff claims halving is merely a "speculative narrative," and the price of the cryptocurrency depends more on macroeconomic conditions than on algorithmic reductions in issuance.
What do analysts forecast?
In general, many experts agree that halving, along with other key factors, has a positive long-term impact on BTC's price. However, not everyone shares such an optimistic view of halving.
Some experts, such as analysts from Glassnode, believe the impact of halving on Bitcoin's price is overrated. In their opinion, factors like crypto ETF dynamics and the behavior of long-term holders play a much more significant role.
Meanwhile, according to Jasper De Maere of Outlier Ventures, halving cycles are losing their influence in a mature market.
Nevertheless, there are also optimistic forecasts among the experts. Analysts from TradingView predict that Bitcoin's price may reach $140,000 as early as August 2025.
An even more bullish forecast comes from Standard Chartered: according to its experts, BTC could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Conclusion
Since the last Bitcoin halving, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has more than doubled — from $60,000 to $121,700. In early July, Bitcoin once again updated its ATH, reaching $123,000.
Halving affects Bitcoin's price — but only when accompanied by growing demand, institutional adoption, and other positive factors such as the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem and miner demand. Supply limitation alone does not matter if there is no demand for the asset.
A good example of this is the Yearn Finance (YFI) token, which caused a stir among investors in 2021 and, for a short time, even surpassed Bitcoin in price. Initially, the total supply of YFI tokens was only 10,000, and such scarcity had an effect amid the DeFi boom. However, as of August 2025, YFI's price has dropped by more than 94% from its historical peak of $93,400.