Halving or Trump's statements: what affects the bitcoin price more?
Analytical data shows that the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market have changed significantly, and today it is becoming increasingly clear what affects the bitcoin price in the long term. If earlier crypto market cycles revolved around the halving of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, the launch of crypto ETFs and the inflow of institutional investments have changed the picture.
According to analysts, with each halving, its influence on the bitcoin price decreases. This is due to the reduction of new BTC issuance against the backdrop of rising market capitalization. Experts believe that halving now has only a small impact on market dynamics, while other factors — primarily macroeconomic and political — are becoming much more significant, forming the basis of what drives the bitcoin price today.
What influences the bitcoin price now?
Macroeconomic factors: inflation and monetary policy
A decisive factor influencing the bitcoin price is U.S. monetary policy. The rise of bitcoin can be driven not only by an actual rate cut, which increases investors' appetite for risk, but also by expectations of such a cut.
The Fed's key rate decisions influence the bitcoin price, not in the short term but in the long term. If monetary easing continues, investor optimism will likely persist.
For example, in late October 2025, the Fed again cut the key rate by a quarter point, which pushed bitcoin higher. Within just 24 hours after the meeting, the price jumped nearly 3% from $106,400 to $109,400.
By easing monetary policy and lowering the rate, the Fed stimulates economic activity: loans become more accessible, leading to economic growth. When rates decline, bank deposit yields fall, prompting investors to seek higher returns — including in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, when the Fed tightens monetary policy, investors tend to move into safer, more stable financial instruments, which negatively impacts the bitcoin price. For example, in 2022, the Fed repeatedly raised interest rates, during which bitcoin's price fell by 60%.
Political factors: Trump's statements and government shutdowns
The situation with the October statement by the 47th U.S. president, Donald Trump, clearly demonstrates how just one tweet from an influential politician can wipe hundreds of billions off the crypto market.
Both individual statements and political events themselves influence the bitcoin price. For example, in November 2024, bitcoin surpassed $70,000 for the first time following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election.
This reaction was linked to the fact that Trump reversed his negative stance on digital assets during the campaign. His election victory became a factor that influenced the bitcoin price more than others. The effect was so strong that it was dubbed the "Trump rally."
Another price surge occurred in March 2025, when Trump announced plans to create a strategic crypto reserve that would include Bitcoin (BTC) and several major altcoins.
Bitcoin immediately responded with a 9.5% rally, jumping from $86,000 to $94,000. However, the move was mostly speculative, and the price soon corrected. Still, the episode demonstrated that almost any significant statement from Trump can move the bitcoin price.
Trump's November 2025 announcement of a dividend program for U.S. residents also affected bitcoin. He pledged to distribute $2,000 to each American from import tariff revenues — a scheme analysts call "helicopter money." Stock and crypto markets reacted instantly: Bitcoin jumped nearly 2% to $106,000, showing that even a single political decision can affect its price.
Some analysts predict that Trump's "helicopter money" could push BTC higher if recipients invest their dividends into bitcoin. The total payout is estimated at $440 billion, another example of what influences bitcoin during periods of economic stimulus.
Experts compared this to 2020, when the U.S. government allocated $2 trillion to support the economy. At that time, bitcoin surged by over 1,000% — from $6,000 to $69,000 by November 2021 — setting a new all-time high (ATH). The 2020–2021 rally became known as the "COVID effect," clearly showing how global financial stimulus impacts bitcoin.
Liquidity flows
Another factor influencing the bitcoin price is the flow of investor capital. During periods of high volatility driven by economic or political uncertainty, investors increasingly allocate capital to more stable assets, such as stablecoins.
Stablecoins are pegged to fiat currencies or treasury bonds and are less volatile than cryptocurrencies.
On-chain analysts track whale bitcoin transfers and movements of coins onto exchanges, which indicate a willingness to sell.
Combined with other indicators, such as stablecoin inflows/outflows from exchange balances, on-chain data helps reveal market sentiment. For example, if whales move bitcoins to exchanges while stablecoins move to wallets, this may signal a potential decline in the bitcoin price.
The same applies to Bitcoin ETFs: during optimistic market phases, inflows into crypto funds rise, showing in real time what influences Bitcoin as investor interest grows. In November 2025, after Trump's dividend announcement, Glassnode reported over $520 million in net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs within a day.
Combination of factors
Political and macroeconomic factors are often interconnected, and their interaction reveals what drives the bitcoin price during uncertainty. For example, the ongoing government shutdown has delayed major economic reports that the Fed uses to set interest rates.
If data is missing or inaccurate, experts may doubt the likelihood of further rate cuts. Should the Fed halt its rate cuts, bitcoin could fall, signaling stagnation in the U.S. economy. Uncertainty may lead investors to hedge risks.
The U.S. government shutdown began in October 2025, and bitcoin posted its first negative month in six years. By late October, its price fell more than 15% — from $125,200 to $107,400. The decline continued into November, with bitcoin briefly dropping below $100,000.
However, after positive political news — including the end of the shutdown and potential financial aid — bitcoin resumed its growth. This once again highlights the factors that influence bitcoin: investor expectations and political decisions.
Within one day, bitcoin rose 4%, climbing from $101,900 to $105,800. Additional momentum came from the launch of new spot crypto products on regulated exchanges.