Bitcoin price at $1 million: Grok's forecast raises the stakes
According to experts, investments in Bitcoin ETFs are expected to reach a record $120 billion by the end of 2025. Such a capital inflow could become a powerful driver of Bitcoin's price growth and one of the main factors behind its rapid movement toward historical highs.
Particular interest was sparked by a recent forecast from Grok — an artificial intelligence embedded in the social network X (formerly Twitter, blocked in the Russian Federation), owned by Elon Musk. In response to a user asking when Bitcoin would reach $1 million, Grok confidently stated, "Spring 2029." Moreover, a specific date was given — April 15, 2029.
Forecast backed by data
In its forecast, Grok used a comprehensive analysis of factors influencing Bitcoin's price.
Historical patterns of BTC movement after halvings
After each halving, Bitcoin has shown consistent growth, laying the groundwork for new all-time highs. Halving is an event where the reward per block for miners is halved, sharply reducing Bitcoin's issuance rate. As a result, BTC supply becomes limited, while demand — especially from investors and traders — typically remains stable or grows.
In 2012, after the first halving, Bitcoin's price rose from $12 to over $1,000. In the second cycle (2016-2017), BTC increased from approximately $650 to roughly $20,000. The third halving in May 2020 triggered growth from approximately $9,000 to a record of roughly $69,000 in 2021.
This historical pattern — "halving → growth" — is deeply ingrained in market behavior and is actively employed by both humans and AI systems to construct medium-term forecasts.
Bitcoin price behavior in previous bull cycles
Bitcoin's behavior in bull markets points to a cyclical yet progressive growth pattern. Each cycle has similar phases: accumulation at the bottom, steady rise, acceleration with new participants entering, and a final "bubble" phase followed by correction.
In 2013, Bitcoin's price surged nearly 100 times; in 2017, it increased by 20 times; and from 2020 to 2021, it rose over 7 times. Despite sharp drops after peaks, each new cycle established higher lows and highs, strengthening the long-term upward trajectory.
Such patterns allow predictions that the next bull cycle, driven by the 2024 halving, could conclude in 2025–2026 with new records, possibly reaching six-figure levels.
Data on capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs
One of the most significant modern demand drivers for Bitcoin has been the approval of spot ETFs in the U.S. in 2024. These instruments provide investors — especially institutional ones — with access to Bitcoin via regulated infrastructure, eliminating the need for self-custody of crypto assets.
Since their launch, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted tens of billions of dollars from major investment firms, including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Invest. In Q2 2025 alone, total capital inflow into BTC ETFs exceeded $50 billion, and by year's end, this figure could surpass $120 billion.
Institutional investor involvement
The growing participation of institutional investors plays a key role in legitimizing Bitcoin as a global asset. Unlike retail traders, significant funds enter the market with 5–10 year horizons and manage billions of dollars.
Companies like Strategy and Tesla have already built multi-billion-dollar BTC portfolios. Hedge funds, pension funds, and family offices are gradually incorporating Bitcoin into diversified investment strategies alongside gold and bonds. It's expected that by 2026, institutional capital in the BTC market will exceed $300 billion. This not only increases market stability but also reduces volatility, making Bitcoin an increasingly attractive asset.
Bitcoin as a global ssset
Grok also noted the growing perception of Bitcoin as a haven amid instability in fiat currencies. High inflation, geopolitical turbulence, and rising sovereign debt burdens are pushing investors to seek alternatives. Bitcoin, with its limited supply and independence from central banks, is becoming a kind of "digital gold" for the 21st century.
Bitcoin at $1 million: is that even real?
The idea that one Bitcoin could be worth $1 million may initially seem like an exaggeration or typical crypto hype. However, this figure has long appeared in strategic forecasts from major investors and analysts.
As far back as 2020, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood presented a base case in which BTC reaches $500,000 by 2030 — and that was without factoring in institutional demand. In 2023, she updated her forecast: under favorable macroeconomic conditions and mass adoption by major funds, the price could reach $1–1.5 million per coin.
A similar opinion was expressed by venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, who stated that Bitcoin would eventually become "an uncontrollable hedge against fiat instability," with a price around $1 million.
It's essential to understand that such forecasts aren't about guessing a number, but about modeling scenarios that take into account macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin's emission policy, and shifts in demand structure.
Suppose Bitcoin is adopted as a full-fledged strategic reserve like gold. In that case, the $1 million target becomes not just possible, but logical amid monetary inflation and declining trust in fiat currencies.
Conclusion
The Grok neural network's forecast that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2029 shouldn't be taken as gospel, but it is based on in-depth data analysis and current trends. The institutionalization of the crypto market, Bitcoin's acceptance as a store of value, macroeconomic instability, and the digitalization of financial systems form a strong foundation for this scenario. The question is no longer whether $1 million per Bitcoin is possible, but rather under what conditions and when it becomes a reality.