Why Bitcoin fell: political risks, whale activity, and capital flight

Any financial market is structured so that after rapid growth, a correction usually follows. In 2025, the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, repeatedly set an all-time high, reaching a record $126,000 in October.

However, after a prolonged period of growth, Bitcoin fell, and a general crypto market decline began. In the first week of November alone, the crypto market lost tens of billions of dollars in market capitalization.

Why Bitcoin fell: breaking down the situation

Traditionally, for the last six years, October has been considered a positive month for Bitcoin. This trend was so stable that investors and traders even nicknamed this month "Uptober".

But 2025 became an exception: for the first time in six years, Bitcoin posted negative October returns, breaking the stable "Uptober" chain.

Almost immediately after reaching ATH, the price of Bitcoin began to drop. Just a week after the new record, Bitcoin fell more than 14%, hitting a monthly low of about $110,000.

Experts believe this wave of Bitcoin's decline was triggered by statements from current U.S. President Donald Trump about plans to raise tariffs on imported Chinese goods by 100% starting in November 2025.

This situation demonstrates that the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, as even the most significant digital assets can move 10% or more in just 30 minutes. In addition, Bitcoin fell following the collapse of stock indices, which react first to political events.

However, not all experts view Bitcoin's October drop as a negative signal. For example, according to SynFutures CEO Rachel Lin, the first "red October" of the leading crypto asset looks more like a "healthy reset" rather than a structural reversal. In her view, the current picture looks more like consolidation within an overall uptrend rather than a correction. Analysts note that, despite the October decline, Bitcoin is still up more than 11% since the beginning of the year.

After a slight rebound to $116,000, the price of the "digital gold" continued to fall, dropping to $104,700 for the first time since April 2025. By the end of October, Bitcoin showed positive dynamics again, reaching $116,000.

However, in November, the negative trend continued, and by November 4, 2025, Bitcoin fell to $103,000, returning to April levels. A new wave of decline in just one day led to more than $400 million in liquidations of open Bitcoin positions. Net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, according to Sosovalue, totaled nearly $190 million.

Analytics platforms such as Lookonchain also note rising whale activity: they are transferring coins to exchange balances for possible sale. For example, two large players sent 13,000 BTC and 3,265 BTC to exchanges, worth $1.4 billion and $365 million, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 27, indicating prevailing fear among investors. In just one month, this figure dropped more than 50%.

Reports of a hack of the central DeFi platform and decentralized exchange Balancer may have intensified investor fears that led to Bitcoin's fall. During the incident, an attacker found a bug in the platform code and withdrew $128 million worth of digital assets from the DEX liquidity pools.

Some experts also link the reasons why Bitcoin fell in November to other factors. For example, among Bitcoin traders, there are growing concerns over the victory of Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani in the New York mayoral election, who has already announced plans to raise taxes. For the market, this is negative: a higher tax burden makes holding and operating crypto less profitable, stimulates capital outflows to other jurisdictions, and, in general, reduces New York's attractiveness as a crypto hub.

Bitcoin has fallen — will growth resume?

Analysts note that, along with October, November is also historically a strong month for Bitcoin, so that the crypto asset may regain positive momentum.

However, after Bitcoin fell, investors fear further tightening of the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Fed chair Jerome Powell announced a potential pause in U.S. monetary easing, triggering a 2% overnight drop in BTC prices on October 30. According to Powell's statements, further rate cuts will depend on incoming U.S. market data. Experts believe this statement reduces risk appetite among Bitcoin investors, which is exacerbated by the lack of analytical data due to the U.S. government shutdown.

Analysts at Glassnode also forecast a risk of continued negative dynamics due to the absence of structural demand for BTC.

In addition, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon points to a high risk of stock market correction due to the overvaluation of traditional assets. According to Dimon, this risk will remain over the next six months to a year. A fall in stock indices could trigger a deeper correction in the crypto market as well.

Although Bitcoin has fallen, concerns about a further correction in the first cryptocurrency remain, but some experts remain optimistic and believe in Bitcoin's future growth. For example, FxPro senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich believes the crypto market is trying to "find a local bottom", which could create favorable conditions to attract digital asset buyers.

The Fed's monetary easing may drive Bitcoin's further growth; however, at the moment, the probability of this is only 60%.