Which US macroeconomic data affect cryptocurrencies: key factors and their importance

Bitcoin was created as a challenge to the traditional financial market in response to the global financial crisis. Initially, Bitcoin was outside the political and economic game — a truly unique phenomenon in the financial industry.

However, as Bitcoin's popularity grew, more and more investors became interested in cryptocurrencies, including those from the traditional sector of the economy. Bitcoin and altcoins have not only become more closely linked to traditional assets, but also become dependent on the condition of traditional financial markets.

In particular, it has become obvious that US macroeconomic data affects cryptocurrencies. This is indicated, for example, by the high correlation of cryptocurrencies with stock indices such as the S&P 500* and Nasdaq*, as well as the launch of traditional exchange-traded instruments such as cryptocurrency ETFs (exchange-traded funds) based on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

* The S&P 500 is a stock index that comprises 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It shows the overall condition of the American stock market and is often used as a benchmark to assess whether stocks are rising or falling.

* Nasdaq usually refers to the NASDAQ Composite or NASDAQ-100 index associated with the Nasdaq exchange. It reflects the dynamics of company stocks, especially in the technology sector, such as IT and internet companies. That is why it is often considered an indicator of investor sentiment toward riskier assets.

Why do US macroeconomic data affect cryptocurrencies?

US macroeconomic data affect Bitcoin and other digital assets because cryptocurrencies have become more deeply integrated into the global financial system. Digital assets are increasingly used for everyday payments, cross-border transfers, long-term investments, and even charitable donations.

In particular, many companies use cryptocurrency for international settlements because it enables them to eliminate the complexities and limitations of traditional payment systems.

Demand for cryptocurrency transfers and payments has become so high that well-known traditional financial companies such as BlackRock, Visa, JPMorgan, PayPal, and Robinhood are launching their own products that provide services involving digital assets.

According to 2025 data, the total transaction volume of stablecoins alone reached $46 trillion. Accordingly, the larger the cryptocurrency market becomes, the more closely it is tied to the traditional sector of the economy, and the more strongly US macroeconomic data affect cryptocurrencies.

In other words, as the crypto market grows in volume, it becomes increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic forecasts that investors rely on in their strategies.

At the same time, the US market is the largest in the world, and the dollar is the most capitalized and most traded currency. Investors primarily focus on the indicators of this market, which is why US macroeconomic data affects cryptocurrencies so strongly.

Which US macroeconomic data affect cryptocurrencies?

The Fed interest rate

The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is one of the main tools for regulating inflation and stabilizing prices in the country. The agency can influence inflation by adjusting the key interest rate, which determines the cost of short-term borrowing.

Rising inflation indicates that loans have become too readily available to the population, leading to a large money supply. Increased spending leads to higher prices and, accordingly, inflation. In this case, the Fed tightens monetary policy by raising the key interest rate. Loans become less accessible, but yields on bank deposits and other traditional products increase.

As a result, investors' risk appetite decreases, and their capital flows out of high-risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, into more stable, predictable assets, such as Treasury bonds. This is how US macroeconomic data affects Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Moreover, not only do published US macroeconomic data affect cryptocurrencies, but even forecasts related to them do as well. In November 2025, the price of Bitcoin fell by 10% solely after forecasts were published about a possible increase in the Fed's key interest rate.

When inflation slows and its pace moderates, the Fed eases monetary policy by lowering interest rates. Loans become more accessible for citizens, but the yields on traditional banking instruments also fall.

As a result, investors are willing to take on risk again and invest in volatile assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. For example, in September 2025, the Fed lowered the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4–4.25% per year. The cryptocurrency market reacted accordingly: by October, the Bitcoin price had reached a new all-time high, surpassing $126,000, while the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency segment rose above $4 trillion for the first time. This is another example of how US macroeconomic data affects Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Consumer price index

Another important indicator affecting the cryptocurrency market is the Consumer Price Index published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This indicator accounts for macroeconomic shifts in the US market.

These US macroeconomic data affect cryptocurrencies because they are among the main benchmarks, alongside inflation, used to set the key interest rate. Growth in the Consumer Price Index can lead to tighter Fed monetary policy and, consequently, a decline in cryptocurrencies, forcing investors to avoid inflationary risks.

For example, even before the publication of data on the February 2026 change in the Consumer Price Index, amid expectations of a 0.3% increase in March, the Bitcoin price fell by 2%, followed by declines in the prices of other cryptocurrencies.

Unemployment data

Another key factor is employment reports published by the Department of Labor — these US macroeconomic data affect cryptocurrencies because they are also taken into account when the Fed decides whether to change the key interest rate.

Weak unemployment data increases the likelihood of monetary easing and, therefore, of a rise in the value of high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. For example, in September 2025, when the unemployment rate in the US rose to 4.4%, the price of Bitcoin continued to grow, repeatedly reaching new highs.

US GDP

US macroeconomic data reflecting GDP levels affect cryptocurrencies because they influence the dynamics of the dollar. GDP growth leads to a strengthening of the US dollar and, accordingly, a weakening of cryptocurrencies.

For example, in the third quarter of 2025, US GDP grew by 4.3%, which caused short-term pressure on cryptocurrency prices. However, overall US macroeconomic data affect cryptocurrencies only slightly, as investors tend to focus more on aggregate indicators than on industry-specific indicators.

Conclusion

US macroeconomic data significantly affects Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, serving as a dominant factor in shaping the dynamics of digital assets. For example, Fed policy alone was the reason for changes in cryptocurrency dynamics in 30% of cases. This clearly reflects how strongly US macroeconomic data affect cryptocurrencies.