Important market signals predicting Bitcoin (BTC) growth
Hashrate growth
During periods of correction or stagnation of Bitcoin, when the cryptocurrency price is at low levels, mining can become low-profit or even unprofitable. To reduce costs, some miners "capitulate."
Miners also often sell their Bitcoin holdings to keep their business afloat. The profitability of miners is directly linked to the cryptocurrency price and network hashrate. The higher the hashrate, the more expensive it becomes to mine cryptocurrency.
If Bitcoin's price is lower than the cost of mining it, mining becomes unprofitable. However, as cryptocurrency accumulates, the network's hashrate begins to grow — indicating increased miner confidence in an upcoming Bitcoin price surge. For example, in October 2024, before Bitcoin's price surpassed $70,000 for the first time, setting a new all-time high (ATH), the Bitcoin network's hashrate exceeded a record 700 EH/s.
Hashrate data can be found using blockchain explorers such as:
- Blockchain.com
- Blockchair
- Minestat
- YCharts
- Coinwarz
Also, attention should be paid to other on-chain data, such as transaction activity and wallet numbers — rapid growth in these indicators may signal the approach of a bull run.
Asset accumulation by large investors
Before cryptocurrency starts to rise sharply, Bitcoin whales increase their activity and begin accumulating coins. For instance, according to Glassnode, in 2020, large investors increased their Bitcoin holdings by 1.5 million BTC — a move that preceded the price surge of the leading cryptocurrency from $10,000 to $60,000. The same happened in the fall of 2024 before the first cryptocurrency's price hit a new all-time high.
Additionally, the number of new wallets increases as investors withdraw assets from centralized exchanges for personal storage. For example, in April 2025, when Bitcoin's price surpassed $100,000 again, approaching the last historical maximum, the number of Bitcoins on centralized exchanges dropped to a multi-year low of 2.4 million BTC.
Therefore, to determine an impending bull run, attention should be paid to the growth in the number of Bitcoin holders who store assets on personal (non-custodial) wallets. Special focus should be on wallets holding more than 1000 BTC. For example, in May, when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $112,000, the number of such wallets, according to CryptoQuant, increased to nearly 1,500.
These and other key cryptocurrency market indicators can be analyzed using services such as Glassnode, River, and Sentiment. Along with Bitcoin accumulation, other metrics usually rise, which should also be monitored. During such periods, Bitcoin's dominance level also increases, and the volatility of the first cryptocurrency decreases.
Increase in trading volume
This trend is quite logical: the higher the price of Bitcoin, the more investors and traders are attracted to the cryptocurrency. As a result, trading volumes begin to rise.
For example, in September 2024, when Bitcoin's price was around $54,000, the daily trading volume for Bitcoin was only $18.2 billion. However, by the end of the year, as Bitcoin's price rose above $100,000, this figure reached $68.5 billion.
Simultaneously, futures market indicators also grew. For instance, in 2024, before the price surge of "digital gold," the open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures reached $30 billion. This metric can be tracked via TradingView and Coinglass.
Following the launch of traditional Bitcoin funds, another vital metric emerged that should be closely monitored — the influx of funds into Bitcoin ETFs. If there is an increase in inflows into Bitcoin funds, it may indicate an upcoming rise in the cryptocurrency's price. For example, in June 2025, the inflow into BTC-ETFs reached record levels, with a weekly inflow of $3.7 billion.
Increase in "Bitcoin" search queries
Google Trends has become a primary indicator for Bitcoin investors. In this case, the trend is also predictable: an increase in search queries with the key term indicates growing interest among potential buyers.
For example, in 2017, before Bitcoin surged to $20,000, there was a spike in search queries on Google with the keyword "Bitcoin." The same occurred in 2020, right before Bitcoin's rally: the number of such queries increased by 500%.
The number of key queries generally correlates with media coverage and social media trends. The approaching bull run can also be indicated by a surge in key queries for hashtags like #Bitcoin and #Crypto.
Strengthening External Factors
The first thing to consider is the legislative environment. During a "thaw" in the digital asset market after a prolonged crypto winter, legislative bodies become more active, developing regulations for the cryptocurrency market.
For example, starting in late 2023, the cryptocurrency market experienced a trend of growth, and from that point, governments began paying closer attention to digital assets. In 2024, a series of events confirmed this:
- The Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) bill came into effect, regulating the digital asset market in the European Union.
- Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF were approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- New bills, GENIUS and STABLE Act, were introduced to regulate stablecoins in the U.S.
- Mandatory KYC (Know Your Customer)* verification was introduced for DeFi platforms and crypto wallets.
*Know Your Customer (KYC) refers to a set of rules that require financial institutions to identify the identities of their users.
No less critical factors influencing the rise and fall of digital assets are macroeconomic indicators such as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate and inflation level.
For example, when the interest rate is reduced, the yield on traditional financial instruments, such as bank deposits and bonds, decreases. This makes them less attractive to investors. During such periods, investors shift their focus to riskier, higher-yield assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies.
For instance, after the Fed's interest rate cut in September 2024, Bitcoin's price grew by over 10% by the end of the month — from $58,000 to $65,000.
An increase in inflation slows economic growth and weakens the national currency. As a result, money loses its purchasing power more quickly, and cryptocurrencies become increasingly attractive to investors.
Moreover, investors often view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. For example, in July 2024, when the Fed released a report showing U.S. inflation at 1%, Bitcoin's price increased by 4%.
