Crypto winter is near: what investors should expect in 2026

Recent weeks have been a severe test for the crypto industry. The market has lost more than $1.5 trillion in capitalization: Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, Ethereum below $2,900, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has declined from $4.28 trillion to $2.92 trillion since early October 2025 — more than one-third. Due to the drop in digital asset prices, investors are concerned that a "crypto winter"* may soon arrive, as it did in 2018 and 2022.

* Crypto winter is a prolonged period during which cryptocurrency prices decline or stagnate. It may last from several months to a year or more. Although crypto winter often begins with a drop in Bitcoin as the leading asset, this period affects the entire sector. It is typically characterized by market pessimism, reduced trading activity, and a massive investor outflow.

Prerequisites for a "Crypto Winter"

Some experts believe that a crypto winter is approaching. For example, the well-known crypto analyst Doctor Profit holds this opinion. He noted that the collapse of regional bank stocks and a significant decrease in market liquidity could signal the onset of a crypto winter.

Previously, the analyst predicted that Bitcoin's price would fall below $100,000. As of early December 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $86,000, and at the end of November, it even dipped below $85,000. According to Doctor Profit, the crypto winter has already begun. He even compared the current situation to the beginning of the global economic crisis in 2008.

Supporting the crypto-winter outlook, some analysts believe that the market correction may continue until spring 2026. Another expert, John Glover, believes that crypto winter may last until the end of 2026, with the leading cryptocurrency falling to $70,000. Analysts note that continued selling after the October decline indicates a shift in market dynamics and the dominance of a bearish cycle.

For instance, Marcus Thielen, analyst and head of 10xResearch, expects the current bearish cycle to match the scale of the 2021–2022 crypto winter. At that time, investors sold more than 1 million BTC. Notably, investors have withdrawn more than $1.5 trillion from the digital asset market in recent months alone.

Nevertheless, Thielen believes Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $85,000 — at least in the near term. However, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone allows the possibility of Bitcoin dropping to $50,000. He also noted that if the broader market crisis continues and crypto winter sets in, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could fall as low as $10,000.

Alphactral analyst João Vedson made a similar forecast: he believes the onset of a crypto winter cannot be ruled out and that Bitcoin may fall to $50,000 by early 2026.

Earlier, Vedson predicted that a bearish cycle would begin in October 2025, signaling the possible start of a crypto winter. After reaching an ATH of $136,200, Bitcoin fell to $86,000 by early December — more than a 30% drop.

However, according to Vedson, a recession in the U.S. market could become the trigger for a crypto downturn. Experts note that a crypto winter may begin following a general slowdown in the business cycle — a pattern that has occurred repeatedly in the digital asset market.

During crypto winters, altcoins tend to fall more sharply than "digital gold." For example, some experts believe that Ethereum (ETH), the leading altcoin, could drop more than 28% in the coming months to $2,140. Analysts point out that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)* indicator for long-term holders has been declining since late August, which may reduce investor confidence in the asset's future growth.

* Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is an indicator showing the difference between the current market value of crypto assets and the purchase price for long-term holders. Simply put, NUPL measures whether most investors are in unrealized profit or loss:

• High values indicate the market is in profit and sentiment is positive.
• A declining NUPL indicates falling confidence and increased risk of selling.

Another major altcoin, Solana (SOL), may fall to $123 in the short term, according to analysts. If major altcoins crash in price, smaller-cap assets will likely follow and could show even deeper corrections, signaling the arrival of a crypto winter.

Why crypto winter might not happen

Despite negative factors and bearish market movement in October–November, other analysts remain optimistic and do not believe this cycle signals a crypto winter.

According to Arthur Hayes, a well-known analyst and founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, the correction in the digital asset market may soon end, preventing a crypto winter in the coming months. One of Hayes' arguments is that the end of the U.S. government shutdown is near.

He claims that once the shutdown ends, funds from the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) will begin to be spent, which could increase liquidity in the markets for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Under such conditions, a crypto winter may not occur. Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will not fall below $80,000 and may grow to $200,000 or more in the long term.

Analyst Raoul Pal and ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood also share optimism. In their view, the current correction is driven by high volatility in the crypto market. But in the long run, even a crypto winter is unlikely to prevent Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies from reaching new highs.

WhiteBird expert Yan Pinchuk believes that key altcoins will follow the leading cryptocurrency. He predicts that if a positive trend emerges, ETH and SOL could rise to $3,500 and $170, respectively, as early as December 2025.

The crypto market may return to a bullish phase as soon as February–March 2026, according to Alice Liu, head of research. She notes that after reaching the minimum on the fear-and-greed index, the market is showing a V-shaped recovery, which is typical before a new cycle, not the start of a crypto winter.

Additional factors reducing the likelihood of a crypto winter include liquidity growth, expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing, and the record capitalization of stablecoins, which has reached $315 billion. According to Liu, this indicates that a large amount of capital is ready to enter the market.