Bitcoin (BTC) in February 2025: crises, records and future forecasts
Bitcoin exchange rate dynamics
In February, the Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate fluctuated between $93,000 and $98,000, indicating high trading and investment activity. At the beginning of the month, the BTC exchange rate temporarily dipped below $93,000 due to sell-offs amid intensifying economic wars between the US and its trading partners. However, Bitcoin then recovered and even approached the $97,000 mark.
As of February 14, 2025, Bitcoin's price is $96,957, showing moderate growth despite the recent volatility. An analysis of trading volume shows that the average daily trading volume during this period was around $35 billion, up 12% from January 2025. According to data from analytics firm Glassnode, the number of active Bitcoin addresses also increased by 8% over the month, indicating growing interest in the cryptocurrency among retail and institutional investors.
Legislative initiatives in the US: impact on Bitcoin
One of the key developments in February was the proposal of bills to create state reserves in Bitcoin in 18 US states. If all of them are passed, more than $23 billion will be invested in Bitcoin, equivalent to buying about 247,000 BTC. Such a move could significantly impact the rise in the price of the first cryptocurrency.
According to Bloomberg research, every state that has initiated similar bills is considering investing between $500 million and $2 billion in Bitcoin. Among the most active states are Texas, Florida, and California, where officials have stated the need to diversify reserve assets.
A study by analyst agency Ark Invest predicts that the passage of such bills could lead to a 15% increase in bitcoin market capitalization during 2025, which in absolute terms is equivalent to an increase of $300-400 billion.
Experts such as Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy, have already noted the significance of these initiatives. Saylor stated, "If US states start holding Bitcoin in reserves, it will create a domino effect with other countries following suit." Ark Invest experts say that institutional acceptance of Bitcoin could lead to a long-term increase in its market capitalization to $2 trillion by 2026.
However, how many of these bills will be approved and which ones will come into force is still unclear. Nevertheless, the fact that such initiatives are being discussed suggests that the government and financial institutions continue to look for ways to integrate cryptocurrencies into the economic system.
Market reaction to economic news
February was also memorable for unexpected economic data. In particular, inflation in the US was higher than predicted: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025 rose by 4.2% in annualized terms instead of the expected 3.8%. This has caused concern among investors, as higher inflation could further tighten the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy.
Usually, such news leads to a weaker stock market, but the cryptocurrency market has shown surprising resilience. Despite an initial 5% drop in bitcoin's price on the day of the CPI data release, the cryptocurrency soon regained its position. According to a report by CoinMetrics, bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 index dropped to 0.45. This means that Bitcoin's dependence on the stock market had decreased by 10% compared to 2024, when this indicator was 0.55.
Experts, including Bloomberg analysts, note that the decline in correlation indicates Bitcoin's gradual transition to the status of a haven asset similar to gold. Chainalysis research director James Middleton adds, "We see investors increasingly looking to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and the volatility of traditional markets in times of economic uncertainty." Deutsche Bank strategist Carl Fischer echoes this view, believing that in an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, bitcoin could become a new element of risk hedging in institutional portfolios.
According to Glassnode, there has been a significant inflow of capital into cryptocurrency exchanges in February 2025, with cumulative inflows of around $4.7 billion, up 15% from January. This confirms the growing investor confidence in Bitcoin despite volatility in traditional markets.
Trade wars and their impact on Bitcoin
One of the main pressures on the market has been the escalation of trade conflicts between the US and several other countries. President Donald Trump's administration introduced new duties on imports, which caused retaliatory measures from other states. In particular, China announced a 20% duty on US technology goods, and the European Union threatened to impose sanctions on the US energy sector.
These events increased uncertainty in traditional financial markets and impacted the cryptocurrency sector. On February 3, the bitcoin rate fell below $93,000, which coincided with another outburst of panic among investors amid deteriorating international relations. However, BTC regained its position a few days later, which may also speak to its growing role as a haven asset in times of instability.
Bottom line: what's next?
According to analyst Willie Wu, if the current trend continues, bitcoin could reach the $120,000 level by the end of 2025, especially if major financial players continue integrating cryptocurrencies into their portfolios. According to JPMorgan's forecast, institutional investment in bitcoin could grow by 40%, further strengthening its market capitalization.
February 2025 further confirms that Bitcoin continues to evolve and strengthen its position in the world of finance despite the challenges and risks facing the market.