Why Toncoin fell: external factors, internal problems, and possible recovery
On October 10, 2025, one of the most significant crashes of the past year occurred in the cryptocurrency market, triggering liquidations totaling a record $20 billion within hours. In less than a day, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by more than 12% — from $4.14 trillion to $3.69 trillion.
The cryptocurrency collapse followed Donald Trump's announcement of new import tariffs on Chinese goods, which the U.S. president plans to implement starting November 1, 2025.
Amid the massive market crash, Toncoin dropped more sharply than other major altcoins.
Back in 2024, Toncoin was one of the fastest-growing blockchain ecosystems. Still, by October 2025, it had fallen out of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, which decreased from a record $24 billion to $5.5 billion. This article explores the reasons behind Toncoin's decline.
Why Toncoin fell: the main reasons for the crash
As a result of the October 10 cryptocurrency crash, altcoins with lower capitalization and liquidity than Bitcoin (BTC) suffered the most, including TON. During the collapse, Toncoin's price on Binance plunged by more than half, from $2.7 to $1.2, with its market cap falling to $4.7 billion. On some exchanges, due to lower liquidity, TON's price even dropped below $1.
One of the main reasons Toncoin fell was the massive outflow of capital, driven by investors' concerns about Trump's future foreign policy. In times of economic instability, investors tend to diversify and move funds from altcoins into more stable, less risky assets such as stablecoins (e.g., Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC)) and fiat currencies.
It's also worth noting that a significant portion of Toncoin's investors are retail Telegram users who lack financial expertise. This is a key factor explaining why Toncoin fell so quickly — inexperienced holders began mass-selling amid panic, amplifying the downward momentum.
The situation clearly illustrates panic sentiment in the crypto market, intensified by retail selling and short positions opened by major traders betting on further price decline.
Experts note that during periods of "economic turbulence," markets experience a "domino effect": first, stock markets react to negative news with a decline, and then the cryptocurrency market follows suit.
According to observations, Toncoin's price fell by more than 50%, placing it among the most heavily hit altcoins in the market. Analysts believe that this steep drop was also caused by relatively low liquidity on exchanges during a sudden spike in trading volumes.
Additionally, experts cite transaction delays in wallets and service disruptions in Toncoin-related applications as further reasons for Toncoin's sharp decline. According to analysts, these internal issues in the TON ecosystem amplified the cryptocurrency's decline.
Another internal factor contributing to Toncoin's fall is its reliance on Telegram's infrastructure. During short-term outages of the messenger or the Wallet app, some users lose access to their assets, leading to growing distrust in the network.
What's next — should we expect TON to recover?
If the U.S. indeed enforces new tariffs on Chinese imports on November 1, the crypto market could face another wave of decline, the scale of which is hard to predict.
Moreover, the performance of cryptocurrencies depends on other macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's key rate and inflation levels.
Even before the October 2025 crash, Toncoin's trend was worsening, following record levels of activity and liquidity in 2024. Since late 2024, the TON price has fallen more than threefold — from $6.9 to $2.2. Analysts note that throughout 2025, both Toncoin's price and network activity have declined.
According to Token Terminal, the number of active addresses in the Toncoin network dropped from 1.6 million to 95,000 in 2025 — nearly a 17-fold decrease. As a result, Toncoin is no longer even in the top 20 blockchains by activity. This decline in user activity is a key reason why Toncoin fell, since a blockchain's fundamental value directly depends on user engagement.
If user activity continues to decline, it could negatively affect TON's price in the near future. However, experts also note several positive factors that may drive recovery or soften potential declines:
- Integration with Telegram, one of the largest messengers in the world, with over 900 million users;
- Active development of services, including the Wallet crypto app integrated into Telegram;
- New experiments, such as the creation of proprietary programming languages Tolk and Tact;
- Ecosystem expansion, including the official launch of USDT on the TON blockchain by Tether — a move expected to attract additional liquidity;
- New investments, such as the $588 million raised by Verb Technology to build TON reserves, could provide additional market support.
Overall, the answer to why Toncoin fell lies in a combination of external shocks and internal problems. Yet understanding these factors allows the TON team to strengthen infrastructure, increase blockchain resilience, and restore investor confidence.
Analysts believe that if TON Strategy continues to build reserves, it could strengthen Toncoin's long-term position. The Toncoin team has also announced plans to expand blockchain-based payment tools and develop a mini-app ecosystem.