Should we expect altseason in Q4 2025?

The cryptocurrency market is not significantly different from other markets and also exhibits a cyclical nature, with periods of prolonged growth and corrections in digital assets.

Will there be an altseason in 2025?

Altseason, also known as the altcoin season, is a period in the cryptocurrency market during which there is a rally of alternative cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin. During this period, altcoins typically outpace "digital gold" in terms of growth rates. Normally, altseason follows a rapid rise in Bitcoin, once it has attracted enough liquidity, and then begins to slow down. Altseason typically lasts for several months, but this duration can vary depending on the market situation.

Experts are divided on whether altseason will occur in 2025. Some believe that altseason is expected soon or has already begun, while others anticipate a market correction.

Altseason: optimistic forecasts

Optimistic analysts, such as Michaël van de Poppe, believe that the crypto market is still far from altseason and that growth lies ahead. The expert notes that the current dynamics of the crypto market are similar to the cycles of Q3 2019 and Q2 2016.

According to him, autumn corrections are a common phenomenon in the crypto market, preceding a new phase of growth, and the fourth quarter of 2025 is one of the most favorable periods for altcoin growth. For example, one of the previous major altseasons began at the end of 2020.

Other analysts believe that altseason could begin as early as October. As evidence, they point to the rise in Google search queries for altcoins and increased whale activity amid the listing of new altcoins such as ASTER and XPL.

Analysts also note increased trader activity after the summer period and a growing interest in popular crypto narratives — directions or themes around which investor attention and capital are forming.

Currently, a special place among them is occupied by projects with utility tokens — cryptocurrencies that not only serve as a medium of exchange but also perform practical functions within their ecosystems (for example, providing access to services, participating in platform governance, or providing liquidity).

Such projects include Hyperliquid, Ethena, and Pump.fun, which, according to experts, are capable of generating stable profits thanks to the real use of their tokens. This, in turn, supports steady demand for their assets and creates favorable conditions for the start of altseason.

Altseason: pessimistic forecasts

Some experts doubt that altseason will occur and consider the current crypto market trend unstable. In their opinion, altseason only reflects the return ratio between Bitcoin and altcoins, but it is also essential to consider other factors, such as macroeconomic data. These include the Federal Reserve's key interest rate, to which cryptocurrency prices usually react.

However, other data can also affect cryptocurrency dynamics. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 — a move that usually triggers a rise in digital assets — cryptocurrency prices began to decline. This happened amid negative inflation data in the U.S. and concerns about a government shutdown, which raised doubts among investors about further rate cuts.

Some analysts are even more pessimistic, believing that altseason will no longer occur. They cite several reasons for this, such as:

• Bitcoin is reaching a new all-time high (ATH) prematurely. This occurred because certain events, such as the approval of a Bitcoin ETF and Donald Trump's election as the new U.S. president, influenced the growth of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin updated its ATH before the halving in 2024 for the first time in history, which is highly unusual.
• The absence of a massive altseason is notable, as investor capital is not flowing into altcoins at the same scale as in previous cycles, and Bitcoin has been absorbing the lion's share of funds for more than two years.
• The disruption of the capital flow order. In previous altseasons, capital first flowed from Bitcoin into large-cap altcoins and then into small-cap digital assets. Now, analysts note that this sequence has been broken, and Ethereum has failed to become the "locomotive" for the altcoin market and the beginning of altseason.

The main reasons for the absence of altseason also include the emergence of numerous niche projects (RWA, AI tokens, and memecoins) that absorb a significant portion of the crypto market's liquidity.

Altseason: what the data shows

One of the leading indicators that can signal the presence or absence of an altcoin season is the Altcoin Season Index, which ranges from 0 to 100. The higher the indicator, the more it suggests the presence of an altseason.

Over the past year, the Altcoin Season Index reached its peak of 87 in December 2024. According to CoinMarketCap data as of October 2025, the index stands at 59/100, but since its September highs, the indicator has fallen by more than 23%.

However, analysts believe that, despite meeting the criteria when most altcoins outperform Bitcoin in terms of growth, the current altseason differs significantly from previous cycles. They note that the index has fallen amid a general cryptocurrency correction, during which altcoins typically decline in price faster than Bitcoin.

Another important indicator for determining altseason is Bitcoin Dominance. Generally, altseason follows a decline in Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market.

For example, during the previous altseason, which lasted from January to May 2021, Bitcoin dominance dropped by more than 43% — from 69.7% to 49%. Looking at the dynamics, a similar situation appears to be unfolding. From June to October 2025, Bitcoin Dominance has already fallen from 64.5% to 58%, i.e., by more than 10%.

According to CoinMarketCap, over the past 90 days, the price of the leading altcoin Ethereum (ETH) has risen by almost 60%, while Bitcoin has increased by only 4.6%. Other major altcoins — XRP (XRP), BNB (BNB), and Solana (SOL) — have also experienced significant growth, increasing by 27.7%, 55.2%, and 40.5%, respectively. However, the trend changed in September 2025.

Analysts have noted a growing Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D indicator) in September 2025, which raises concerns among investors about a potential delay in the altseason. In their view, BTC.D may continue to rise. If the indicator reaches 59% or higher, it could become a negative signal for altcoins.

At the same time, according to experts' forecasts, Bitcoin's dominance could fall to 55–50% in the fourth quarter of 2025, creating an additional platform for the start of an altseason.