Key threats to the Solana blockchain
As of September 2025, Solana ranks 6th among cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, which stands at $112 billion. Moreover, in 2024 Solana became one of the fastest-growing and most widely used ecosystems.
However, it is necessary to determine what drives this rapid growth: fundamental factors such as technological development of the ecosystem, or speculative investor interest and short-term crypto market trends? This article analyzes the factors that may negatively affect the Solana blockchain.
Solana blockchain failures and centralization issues
Until 2023, one of Solana's main problems was frequent network outages that occurred nearly every month and lasted up to two days, threatening long-term network stability and reputation.
In early 2023, the situation improved: developers stabilized the network, with only two outages recorded between 2023 and 2024. The last incident happened in February 2025, when block production stopped for five hours, but operations resumed after an emergency update. Since then, Solana has set a record of 19 months of uninterrupted operation without critical failures.
Meanwhile, experts argue that node centralization remains an issue. Paul Brody, an Ernst & Young expert, emphasizes that control should be distributed among all network participants, rather than concentrated in the hands of one person, organization, or group, as is the case with Solana.
Lawrence Smith, senior market strategist at ConsenSys (developer of the popular Ethereum wallet MetaMask), notes that Solana's centralization risk lies in the fact that a single entity can effectively switch the network on or off.
In 2025, the Solana Foundation tightened its validator strategy to increase decentralization and reduce dependency on centralized support. The main goal was to reduce the high concentration of staked SOL tokens among a small circle of validators.
Still, it is too early to say whether decentralization will increase significantly in the near future — especially in light of a potential SOL-ETF approval, which could attract more institutional investors.
High share of meme tokens in the ecosystem
Another critical systemic risk for Solana is meme tokens, which are predominantly speculative assets. Most meme tokens attract only short-term investor interest, which can quickly vanish.
As a result, their prices can surge and collapse rapidly. For example, since the beginning of 2025, the prices of most top-100 meme coins have fallen by 20–56%.
As of September 2025, Solana ranks among the top three ecosystems by network activity (after BNB Chain and NEAR Protocol), with 2.9 million daily active users according to Token Terminal.
The surge in activity was driven by the launch of popular token issuance platforms like Pump.fun, Moonshot, and LetsBonk.fun.
However, on-chain researchers report that the majority of transactions involve speculative meme tokens. By late 2024, over 60% of all DEX-related transactions came from Pump.fun alone.
A VanEck report (April 2025) showed meme coins accounted for 35% of trading volume on Solana's DEXes, down 9% since January but still significant. Moreover, 95% of all non-stablecoin crypto trading volume in Solana's ecosystem was linked to meme tokens. This heavy dependence on speculative tokens threatens long-term ecosystem stability.
Narrowly focused ecosystem development
Experts note that Solana's growth has been driven not only by speculation but also by real infrastructure and technology progress, including:
- Adoption of the SPL standard
- Step-by-step integration of Firedancer (validator software for Solana)
- Implementation of innovations like ZK Compression
Solana's high performance and low transaction costs have fueled growth in decentralized applications (DApps).
However, the majority of Solana's revenue still comes from just two sectors: liquid staking and trading activity, mostly involving meme tokens and stablecoins.
Experts predict that 2025 will be a turning point for Solana as the ecosystem expands into new sectors such as DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) and artificial intelligence (AI). Yet these developments remain in early stages, and their ultimate impact on network activity is uncertain.
Solana's outlook
Despite the identified risks, Messari analysts predicted in 2024 an "explosive growth" for Solana thanks to technological improvements and greater ecosystem resilience. Another potential price catalyst is the approval of spot Solana ETFs, with a 90% likelihood by the end of 2025.
Some analysts estimate Solana's price could rise to $4,000 if ETFs are approved. VanEck also predicted in late 2023 that Solana could enter the top three cryptocurrencies by market cap in 2024, overtaking XRP, Tether (USDT), and BNB — though it only briefly reached fourth place.
In VanEck's updated forecast, the SOL token could reach $520 by Q4 2025.