Solana-based ETF: has the launch already begun?
Solana today: on-chain activity growth and the launch of the first exchange-traded funds
Amid rumors of a potential Solana ETF approval, the price of Solana resumed its upward trend in early June, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of growth rate.
Over the last quarter, the price of Solana (SOL) has increased by more than 32%, reaching $155. Trading volume also saw a notable jump: over the past month, it rose by nearly a third, surpassing $4 billion in daily volume.
On-chain activity indicates growing user interest in the Solana blockchain, with the number of daily transactions increasing by 200,000 within a week to reach 3.2 million. Institutional demand has also surged. Analysts have noted record futures trading volumes on Solana at the CME, with daily contracts reaching 1.75 million.
Experts attribute this heightened trading activity to the potential approval of a Solana ETF, which could occur as early as this summer. In June, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) returned applications for spot Solana ETFs that major investment firms had previously submitted. That same month, updated filings for crypto ETFs were resubmitted by VanEck, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Galaxy, and Grayscale.
The increased interest in the Solana network may also be related to a recent partnership between the Solana Foundation and the government of Kazakhstan. As part of this collaboration, a Solana Economic Zone is planned in Kazakhstan to support blockchain startups.
While analysts await the approval of a Solana ETF, early July saw the launch of Solana-based ETFs with staking support on the Cboe BZX exchange — a first in the U.S. The Solana Staking ETF represents shares that not only reflect the price of the underlying asset (SOL) but also include rewards from native staking on the blockchain.
Solana Staking ETFs were launched by two issuers — REX Shares and Osprey Funds. On the very first day of trading, the total capital inflow into the Solana Staking ETFs reached $12 million, and daily trading volume exceeded $33 million.
According to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, this performance significantly surpasses that of altcoin-based futures crypto funds. However, it still lags behind spot Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF in terms of volume.
The launch of the Solana Staking ETF, approved by the SEC itself, suggests a growing likelihood that other SOL-based funds will also receive approval.
What to expect: expert forecasts
Analysts estimate the chances of Solana ETF approval at 61%, according to data from Polymarket. Notably, this figure rose sharply by 13% in June. However, many believe approval is unlikely before December.
The chances improved after the SEC requested issuers to update their S-1 registration forms. Experts believe this increases the likelihood of SOL-based crypto ETFs being approved within the next three to five weeks.
Eric Balchunas also stated that investors should prepare for a potential "altcoin ETF summer." He believes that, if approved, Solana would lead the crypto ETF market.
Analysts forecast a rise in Solana's price if exchange-traded funds based on SOL are approved. Some even believe that, with institutional adoption and ETF approval, the cost of SOL could surge to $1,000 during a bull market.