The global gold rally: reasons for gold’s record growth and expert forecasts

In February 2026, the price of gold îáíîâèë èñòîðè÷åñêèé ìàêñèìóì, reaching a new all-time high by surpassing the $5,000 per ounce mark for the first time in the history of global financial markets, while gold's market capitalization exceeded $35.3 trillion.

Over the past two years alone, the price of gold has more than doubled: back in February 2024, the price of the world's most capitalized asset barely exceeded $2,000. Thus, the market is witnessing a true gold rally.

What is behind such rapid growth in gold, and why, according to some experts, the gold rally may continue.

Why is the rise in gold not stopping?

Despite the negative dynamics in financial markets and the unfavorable geopolitical situation worldwide, the gold rally continues in the first quarter of 2026. Since the beginning of October 2025 alone, the asset has gained about a quarter of its value. Financial experts highlight several reasons for the ongoing rise in gold.

Gold as a reserve asset

Some experts associate the rise in gold with the fact that, along with silver, this precious metal is traditionally considered a defensive instrument — a kind of haven during times of financial crises and economic instability.

According to analysts' observations, the current demand level is comparable to that seen during the well-known global crisis of 2008 and the 2020 pandemic, when gold prices rose just as rapidly.

Record demand from investors, funds, and central banks

Analysts note large-scale gold purchases by central banks of various countries. Major economies such as China and India continue to build their gold reserves, further fueling gold's rise.

For example, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continued purchasing gold throughout 2025. From the beginning of the year through November, the PBoC reported buying more than 26 tons of gold, while gold's share in the bank's reserves increased by 2.8%. Experts note that central banks pay little attention to short-term price fluctuations when purchasing gold. In their view, such purchases contribute to the gradual rise in gold prices.

Some experts point out that the gold rally may also have continued due to the FOMO (fear of missing out)* effect, which led to a sharp increase in demand from retail investors. Reuters analysts observe significant inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs)*. According to JPMorgan, in the third quarter of 2025, gold purchases approached 1,000 tons, 50% more than in the previous three quarters, also triggering further growth in gold.

* FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) — a psychological effect in which investors begin to massively buy an asset out of fear of missing price growth, thereby increasing demand and accelerating the rally.

* ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) — an exchange-traded investment fund whose units (shares) are freely traded on a stock exchange in the same way as ordinary shares. Such a fund is formed from a single asset or a basket of assets and fully replicates their market dynamics. In the case of gold ETFs, the value of the units directly depends on the price of gold. At the same time, the fund itself is usually backed by physical metal or derivative financial instruments. ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to gold without the need to buy, store, and insure physical bullion, making this instrument a convenient and liquid way to invest.

The gold rally is driving demand for the asset not only from retail investors but also from large private investors. Thus, the issuer of the most popular and largest stablecoin by market capitalization, USDT — Tether, purchased 25–26 tons of gold each quarter in the second half of 2025 for its reserves.

Easing of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy

When the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the attractiveness of the dollar and traditional banking instruments, such as deposits and government bonds, decreases. As a result, this leads to growth in gold and other reserve assets.

Statistics show that, as a result of the Fed's monetary policy easing, the US dollar weakens — these factors are interconnected. Analysts note that the value of reserve assets rises when the dollar weakens, which may have intensified the gold rally in 2025. According to experts' observations, in that same year the performance of the DXY dollar index* was the worst since 2017.

* DXY Dollar Index (US Dollar Index) — an index that shows the overall strength of the US dollar by comparing its exchange rate against a basket of major global currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc.

The rise in gold alongside a weakening dollar is also closely linked to high inflation, which in the past has already led to rapid gold rallies, for example, in the 1970s.

Will the gold rally continue, and is it worth buying now?

According to some experts, the prospects for explosive gold growth in 2026 do not look as convincing. A correction after a prolonged gold rally is a natural phenomenon and may occur if the market becomes severely "overheated."

A slowdown in gold's growth or even a correction may also occur in the event of tighter Fed monetary policy, reduced demand from ETF funds and reserve banks, as well as a decline in geopolitical tensions.

On the other hand, the rapid rise in gold by more than 50% over the past six months alone may be an alarming signal of an approaching new global crisis, capable of accelerating inflation and weakening national currencies.

According to analysts' estimates, if geopolitical tensions persist, the gold rally may continue, and the average annual growth rate of gold could reach 8% to 10% or more.

When assessing the prospects for gold's growth, it is essential to keep in mind that gold is a long-term investment. Therefore, large private investors, including banks, continue to increase their gold reserves despite local price collapses. That is why the timing of purchases for long-term holding is not so important — almost none of these investors doubt gold's long-term growth.

At the same time, it should be borne in mind that purchasing gold through traditional platforms and banks involves certain risks, including asset freezes and account blockages, as well as related expenses such as commissions and storage costs.

However, to own gold, it is not necessary to open metal accounts at banks or buy gold bars. There is an alternative in the form of the XAUT token, which is pegged to the price of gold and backed by it.

Advantages of the XAUT token include:

Storage in a personal crypto wallet, the keys to which are controlled solely by the owner;
No need to open bank accounts or provide personal information;
The ability to purchase a small fraction of gold, which is impossible when buying a bar (including due to exchange reserve issues).
Low risk of asset blocking or freezing in the wallet.
The ability to sell XAUT tokens at any time, including on decentralized exchanges;
No storage fees or other related expenses.

You can purchase XAUT tokens to avoid missing a potential gold rally through reliable exchangers, a list of which is available on the BestChange website.